Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mariano D'Antonio Author-X-Name-First: Mariano Author-X-Name-Last: D'Antonio Author-Name: Margherita Scarlato Author-X-Name-First: Margherita Author-X-Name-Last: Scarlato Title: Struttura economica e commercio estero: un'analisi per le province italiane Length: 21 Creation-Date: 199712 Number: 0001 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0001 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pierangelo Garegnani Author-X-Name-First: Pierangelo Author-X-Name-Last: Garegnani Author-Name: Antonella Palumbo Author-X-Name-First: Antonella Author-X-Name-Last: Palumbo Title: Accomulation of capital Length: 15 Creation-Date: 199712 Number: 0002 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0002 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Elio Cerrito Author-X-Name-First: Elio Author-X-Name-Last: Cerrito Title: Crisi di cambio e problemi di politica monetaria nell'talia di fine ottocento. Appunti su alcune evidenze empiriche Abstract: Obiettivo del lavoro è un primo esame di ipotesi ed evidenze per una interpretazione maggiormente articolata della crisi del 1893; appunti frammentari, che tendono ad individuare i fenomeni maggiormente significativi su cui concentrare l'attenzione. Uno shock di competitività, conseguente ad una rivalutazione della lira e al contemporaneo arrivo sui mercati europei degli staple americani, determina nella prima metà degli anni Ottanta un drammatico deterioramento della bilancia commerciale dell'Italia. Nella risposta della classe dirigente italiana al mutamento del quadro internazionale sono da individuare 4 componenti fondamentali: l'espansione del debito pubblico, in larga misura collocato all'estero; un crescente deprezzamento del cambio; un deflusso di riserva metallica che, per il vincolo istituzionale che lega riserva e biglietti, determina un corso restrittivo di politica monetaria; misure di protezione doganale. L'aumento del debito estero è connesso ad una fase di espansione degli investimenti di Francia, Gran Bretagna e Germania verso i paesi late comer. Le scelte di politica economica dell'italia tamponano gli eventi, tentano di ridurre i costi reali dello shock, ma creano anche una configurazione tipica che prelude ad una crisi di cambio. Quando tra 1889 e 1890, fattori reali e finanziari provocano una contrazione dei flussi internazionali di credito, il deprezzamento della lira assume velocità crescente. Tra fine del 1892 e autunno del 1893, discesa dei prezzi, crisi americana e riforma della valuta indiana determinano una contrazione monetaria, una corsa internazionale alla qualità e scatenano dal luglio 1893 un attacco contro i valori legati all'argento e contro la lira. Il cambio si impenna sotto il peso di una svalutazione delle attività denominate in lire e di ritiri crescenti di capitali, che portano alla caduta delle due maggiori banche private italiane. Tra la fine del 1893 e l'inizio del 1894, l'alternarsi della tensione monetaria internazionale e drastici provvedimenti volti a sanare le finanze pubbliche e riequilibrare i deflussi di capitali verso l'estero, ma anche ad espandere fortemente la circolazione per evitare la generalizzazione della crisi bancaria, arrestano il deprezzamento e riconducono la lira su un sentiero di apprezzamento, dapprima rapido, poi travagliato, che porterà al ritorno alla parità aurea nel 1902. Le linee interpretative proposte procedono in direzione di una visione unitaria della fenomelogia che caratterizza l'economia italiana dell'ultimo ventennio del XIX secolo: stabiliscono nessi tra processi reali e monetari, nazionali ed esteri; individuano elementi di continuità tra eventi dell'inizio degli anni '80 e crisi del 1893; evidenziano la natura endogena della politica di bilancio espansiva; individuano elementi costitutivi dei contesti di senso che spiegano interpretazioni e comportamenti prevalenti nel periodo. Length: 79 Creation-Date: 199712 Number: 0003 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0003 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Manni Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Manni Title: Struttura delle Fonti di Finanziamento: unindagine sulla principali società Italiane produttrici di bevande Length: 26 Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0004 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0004 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: J.O. Berger Author-X-Name-First: J.O. Author-X-Name-Last: Berger Author-Name: Julia Mortera Author-X-Name-First: Julia Author-X-Name-Last: Mortera Title: Default Bayes Factors for one-sided hypothesis testing Abstract: Bayesian hypothesis testing for non-nested hypotheses various "default" Bayes factors, such as the fractional Bayes factor, the median intrinsic Bayes factor and the encompassing and expected intrinsic Bayes factors. The different default methods are first compared with each other and with the p-value in normal one-sides testing, to illustrate the basic issues. General results for one-sides testing in location and scale models are then presented. The default Bayes factors are also studied for specific models involving multiple hypotheses. In most of the examples presented we also derive the intrinsic prior; this is the prior distribution which, if used directly, would yield answers (asymtotically) equivalent to those for the given default Bayes factor. Length: 32 Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0005 Keywords: Bayes factor, fractional Bayes factor, intrinsic Bayes factor, model comparison, one-sided hypothesis testing, multiple hypothesistesting Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0005 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Attilio Trezzini Author-X-Name-First: Attilio Author-X-Name-Last: Trezzini Title: Capacity Utilisation in the Long Run: A Reply to Serrano Length: 22 Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0006 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0006 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Maria Ferragina Author-X-Name-First: Anna Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Ferragina Title: . Quality Product differentiation in Cee-Eu Intra-Industry Trade Length: 57 Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0007 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0007 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Maria Francesca Renzi Author-X-Name-First: Maria Francesca Author-X-Name-Last: Renzi Author-Name: L. Cappelli Author-X-Name-First: L. Author-X-Name-Last: Cappelli Author-Name: S. Salerno Author-X-Name-First: S. Author-X-Name-Last: Salerno Title: Outsourcing: opportunità e limiti per le aziende che operano con sistemi di qualità conformi alle norme ISO 9000 Length: 20 Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0008 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0008 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Margherita Scarlato Author-X-Name-First: Margherita Author-X-Name-Last: Scarlato Title: The impact of international trade on employment and wage differentials: same evidence from the italian macro-regions Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0009 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0009 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Attilio Trezzini Author-X-Name-First: Attilio Author-X-Name-Last: Trezzini Title: Some notes on Long-Run capacity utilisation, steady state and induced investment Abstract: The aim of this paper is to critically appraise some recent contributions on the analysis of growth by the so-called Kaleckian authors. In particular, the paper deals with the Kaleckian analysis of the long-run relationship between capital accumulation and capacity utilisation and with the way in which this analysis has benne modified in response to some criticism. A full development of the Keynesian analysis of growth, which the Kaleckians aim at, requires a number of modifications to their original models. It will be argued that these modifications to their original models. It will be argued that these modifications go in a totally different direction from that followed by the Kaleckians themselves. This means abandoning the use of steady-growth paths as the method of studying long-run tendencies of the economy and, simultaneously, critically reconsidering the analysis of the relation between investment and the expansion of aggregate demand. Length: 25 Creation-Date: 199812 Number: 0010 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0010 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Salvatore Monni Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Monni Title: A convergence analysis of human development Abstract: We have tried to understand if the GDP convergence in terms of human development, as pointed out by more than one author. We have built a composite index, the RsHdi (Regional specific Human development index) to rank the single regions of Europe in terms of human development, than we have focused our attention on the existence of "beta" convergence (rate at which RsHdi converges) between 1991 and 1996, and the possible increase of dispersion of RsHdi across the European Union. Length: 31 Creation-Date: 199909 Number: 0011 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0011 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Guido M. Rey Author-X-Name-First: Guido M. Author-X-Name-Last: Rey Title: Informazione e politiche pubbliche: non è mai troppo tardi Length: 51 Creation-Date: 199909 Number: 0012 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0012 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Maria Maddalena Barbieri Author-X-Name-First: Maria Maddalena Author-X-Name-Last: Barbieri Author-Name: Caterina Conigliani Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Conigliani Title: Fractional bayes factors for the analysis of autoregressive models with possible unit roots Abstract: In this paper we consider the problem of identifying an autoregressive model for an observed time series and detecting a possible unit root in its characteristic polynomial. This is a big issue concerned with distinguishing stationary time series from time series for which differencing is required to induce stationarity. We adopt the Bayes approach and assume that the prior information about the parameters of the model is weak. For the comparison of the models in this setting we introduce a modified version of the fractional Bayes factor. Length: 14 Creation-Date: 200001 Number: 0013 Keywords: Autoregressive model, fractional Bayes factor, model selection, time series, unit root Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0013 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Margherita Scarlato Author-X-Name-First: Margherita Author-X-Name-Last: Scarlato Title: Capitale sociale e sviluppo economico Creation-Date: 200012 Number: 0014 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0014 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Maria Ferragina Author-X-Name-First: Anna Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Ferragina Title: Price versus quality competition in Italys trade with central and eastern Europe aver the transition Abstract: This paper is an investigation on the main changes observed in the Italian trade with a group of Eastern European economies over the period 1988-1997, during which Italy has become the second EU trade partner for Eastern Europe after Germany. Eastern European countries show patterns of specialisation very similar to the Italian ones, in as much as they are based on "traditional" sectors, with an high intensity of labour and physical capital. Moreover, the evolution of comparative advantages suggest that a tendency exist: towards an increasing specialisation of the CEECs in labour intensive productions. There are signals of a possible conflict with the typical Italian pattern of export. An econometric test of the relationship between Italy-CEE comparative advantages and industry factor intesities using a simple of 3-digit NACE industries confirms the presence of a structural shift in favour of labour-intensitive productions, besides the persistence of the old specialisation of transition economies in capital.intensive industries. When intra-industry trade is considered, it appears that vertical product differentiation explains a relevant share of two-way trade. All the results seem to concur to the conclusion that no serious displacement should come to the Italian export from Eastern Europe competition. However, an econometric test of the employment effects associated with trade of different quality with the CEECs confirms the importance of monitoring the future evolution of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade. Length: 61 Creation-Date: 200006 Number: 0015 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0015 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mariano D'Antonio Author-X-Name-First: Mariano Author-X-Name-Last: D'Antonio Author-Name: Margherita Scarlato Author-X-Name-First: Margherita Author-X-Name-Last: Scarlato Title: Capitale umano e sviluppo economico un modello di equilibrio economico generale per il centro-nord e il mezzogiorno d'Italia Length: 69 Creation-Date: 200006 Number: 0016 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0016 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Title: Gli effetti della regolamentazione sullattività di insider trading Abstract: L'insider trading è configurato nella dottrina economica come una tipica asimmetria informativa ex ante; tale fenomeno prevede che la superiorità informativa di una parte a scapito dell'altra esiste ancora prima del verificarsi di un dato intervento. Solitamente l'insider trading viene visto ed esaminato come un fenomeno negativo; molti studiosi ed economisti hanno invece dimostrato che tale fenomeno potrebbe avere effetti positivi sull'efficienza informativa dei mercati finanziari, sugli incentivi manageriali e sulla distribuzione di ricchezza presso gli investitori. Il modello da noi esaminato rafforza quest'ultima posizione evidenziando, come la politica di regolamentazione che si concretizza in sistemi di penalizzazione e controllo intermedi e che permette un livello minimo di insider trading consente un miglioramento dell'efficienza del mercato. Ipotizzando che gli operatori che dispongono di informazioni riservate siano avversi al rischio, il lavoro evidenzia come regolamentazioni basate esclusivamente su pene pecuniarie non frenano gli operatori sul mercato e suggerisce la necessità di pene accessorie che intacchino la reputazione della persona. Length: 16 Creation-Date: 200006 Number: 0017 Keywords: asimmetrie informative, utilità attesa Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0017 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: Alberi binomiali e struttura della volatilità Length: 18 Creation-Date: 200006 Number: 0018 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0018 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Title: Modelli per la struttura a termine con volatilità stocastica (una rassegna critica) Abstract: Nel presente lavoro vengono evidenziate le problematiche che hanno portato alla introduzione di modelli per la struttura per scadenza con volatilità stocastica e viene riproposta una lettura dei modelli più noti in letteratura inserendoli a seconda delle loro caratteristiche o tra i modelli affini o tra i modelli nei quali si ipotizza che la volatilità del tasso a breve abbia un andamento di tipo GARCH. Si analizzano inoltre le problematiche connesse con la loro verifica empirica. Length: 12 Creation-Date: 200007 Number: 0019 Keywords: Struttura a termine, modelli affini, volatilità stocastica Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0019 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: Metodologie per la valutazione delle obbligazioni convertibili in ipotesi di evoluzione stocastica della struttura per scadenza Abstract: Questo lavoro propone due modelli per la valutazione di obbligazioni convertibili in ipotesi stocastica della struttura per scadenza e del valore dell'azienda nelle cui azioni il titolo può essere convertito. I modelli proposti vengono sviluppati in ipotesi di dipendenza tra i processi stocastici considerati. Tale dipendenza, nel modello continuo si esplicita tramite un coefficiente di correlazione tra i processi di Wiener, mentre nel modello discreto è implicitamente contenuta in un'ipotesi di volatilità stocastica, condizionata dalla evoluzione della struttura per scadenza, del rendimento dell'azienda. Si segnalano le conclusioni a cui si perviene nelle analisi di sensitività effettuate Length: 12 Creation-Date: 200009 Number: 0020 Keywords: Obbligazioni convertibili, processi stocastici, modelli per l'evoluzione della struttura per scadenza, simulazione monte carlo Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0020 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mariano D'Antonio Author-X-Name-First: Mariano Author-X-Name-Last: D'Antonio Title: L´Interdipendenza tra economia e ambiente un´analisi applicata all´Italia Length: 32 Creation-Date: 200102 Number: 0021 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0021 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato Author-X-Name-First: Alessia Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato Title: Uno studio sulla diffusione di fenomeni metereologici mediante particolari modelli spazio-temporali Length: 21 Creation-Date: 200107 Number: 0022 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0022 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Author-Name: Margherita Scarlato Author-X-Name-First: Margherita Author-X-Name-Last: Scarlato Title: Settore sommerso e politiche di emersione: un approccio stocastico Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of uncertainty in shaping the behavior of firms in the underground economy. Following the "option value" approach, we present a dynamic model which captures (1) the irreversibility of reallocation decisions when stochastic shocks can change substantially the net present returns in both the legal and the underground sectors. This model allows us to draw a number of interesting policy implications. Last we use our theoretical results to address the specific issues that arise in the case of the Mezzogiorno of Italy. We show that our framework provides some insights that could br fruitfully considered in the current discussion on the appropriate interventions to reduce the size of the underground economy in the Italian southern regions. Length: 30 Creation-Date: 200112 Number: 0023 Classification-JEL: D81, O17 Keywords: decision making under uncertainty, underground economy, stochastic models, stochastic programming Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0023 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Sebastiano Fadda Author-X-Name-First: Sebastiano Author-X-Name-Last: Fadda Title: Per un nuovo sostegno allo sviluppo locale: patti territoriali e servizi al territorio nel nuovo scenario economico Creation-Date: 200112 Number: 0024 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0024 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Fabrizio De Filippis Author-X-Name-First: Fabrizio Author-X-Name-Last: De Filippis Author-Name: Daniela Storti Author-X-Name-First: Daniela Author-X-Name-Last: Storti Title: Le politiche di sviluppo rurale nell´unione europea: un secondo pilastro tutto da inventare Length: 45 Creation-Date: 200206 Number: 0025 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0025 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Fabrizio De Filippis Author-X-Name-First: Fabrizio Author-X-Name-Last: De Filippis Author-Name: Luca Salvatici Author-X-Name-First: Luca Author-X-Name-Last: Salvatici Title: The eastward enlargement of the european union and the common agricultural policy Abstract: This paper briefly traces the main features of the Common Agriculural Policy (CAP), and of the transition process in the agriculural sectors of Central and Eastern European countries. The EU Commission proposal for the integration of the new members into the CAP is examined, in order to asses the implication both for the WTO negotiations, and for the negotiations with the new members about the "agricultural chapter". We argue that the main challange is to extend the CAP to the new members without upsetting the net contributors to the EU budget, and we analyse the effects of different schemes that would allow some cost sharing between EU and national budgets. The main conclusion is that the CAP for an enlarged Union should be based on decentralization of expenditures and a system pf subsidies and transfers among countries. Length: 35 Creation-Date: 200206 Number: 0026 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0026 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Simona Fiumara Author-X-Name-First: Simona Author-X-Name-Last: Fiumara Author-Name: Elena Bellisario Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Bellisario Title: La rilevanza della certificazione di qualità nella responsabilità del produttore di giocattoli Length: 84 Creation-Date: 200207 Number: 0027 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0027 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Sebastiano Fadda Author-X-Name-First: Sebastiano Author-X-Name-Last: Fadda Title: Does the change of economic institutions require a change in values? Length: 22 Creation-Date: 200211 Number: 0028 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0028 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Andrea Corese Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Corese Title: La mediateca: approcci gestionali Length: 16 Creation-Date: 200211 Number: 0029 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0029 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Saverio M. Fratini Author-X-Name-First: Saverio M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fratini Title: Il teorema dell'indice e l'unicità dell'equilibrio con produzione: una discussione dei limiti del procedimento Length: 33 Creation-Date: 200211 Number: 0030 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0030 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Conigliani Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Conigliani Author-Name: F. Spezzaferri Author-X-Name-First: F. Author-X-Name-Last: Spezzaferri Title: An alternative bayes factor for testing for unit autoregressive roots Creation-Date: 200212 Number: 0031 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0031 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pierangelo Ciurlia Author-X-Name-First: Pierangelo Author-X-Name-Last: Ciurlia Title: Applicazione di tecniche di simulazione alla valutazione delle opzioni russe Length: 33 Creation-Date: 200212 Number: 0032 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0032 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Carmela D'Apice Author-X-Name-First: Carmela Author-X-Name-Last: D'Apice Title: La distribuzione del reddito in Italia nell´ultimo trentennio Abstract: il paper prende in considerazione l'andamento dell'indice di concentrazione di Gini, dalla fine degli anni sessanta e sino alla fine degli anni novanta (di fonte Banca d'Italia ed Istat), per tentare di delineare l'andamento della disuguaglianza nel nostro paese e nell'ultimo trentennio. Rilevata l'inadeguatezza delle fonti, almeno per questo obiettivo, date le numerose fratture metodologiche presenti nella raccolta delle rilevazioni, il paper prova, comunque, a tratteggiarne l'evoluzione attraverso un'analisi dei principali eventi economici, sociali e politici più strettamente collegabili alla distribuzione del reddito. Le conclusioni principali ci sembrano essere almeno due; la prima, la distribuzione muta nel tempo ed assume un andamento rappresentabile più che ad un'unica "u" rovesciata alla Kuznets da una sequenza di "u" (non rovesciata e rovesciata) in cui i periodi di minore disuguaglianza si alternano a periodi di maggiore disuguaglianza per un complesso intreccio di eventi e di politiche che appartengono alle profonde trasformazioni rilevabili nel tessuto economico, sociale, politico ed istituzionale del paese. La seconda è che ci sia ancora molta strada da fare per migliorare la conoscenza empirica che dovrebbe essere d'ausilio alla teoria economica, e, questa, alla quinda delle misure di politica economica. Length: 52 Creation-Date: 200302 Number: 0033 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0033 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Conigliani Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Conigliani Author-Name: Andrea Tancredi Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Tancredi Title: Semi-parametric modelling for costs of helt care technologies Creation-Date: 200312 Number: 0034 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0034 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Author-Name: Margherita Scarlato Author-X-Name-First: Margherita Author-X-Name-Last: Scarlato Title: Innovazione tecnologica e offerta di skill: una simulazione del ruolo della storia e delle aspettative in unarea in via di sviluppo Abstract: In this paper a dynamic stochastic model is used to simulate the matching process between skills demand and supply in a segmented labor market of a typical developong area where labor market frictions are pervasive. We address the issue of the emergence of a "bad" outcome i.e. equilibrium towards the low level of development, given adverse initial conditions. In a second step we discuss the sensitivity of the endogenous dynamics yo parameters changes due to policy/institutional reforms that change the expectations of the economic agents. Length: 36 Creation-Date: 200302 Number: 0035 Classification-JEL: D83, E27, J64 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0035 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Saverio M. Fratini Author-X-Name-First: Saverio M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fratini Title: Il ritorno delle tecniche in un modello di equilibrio intertemporale con generazioni sovrapposte Creation-Date: 200312 Number: 0036 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0036 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valentina Guizzi Author-X-Name-First: Valentina Author-X-Name-Last: Guizzi Title: Selezione di portafogli ottimi con vincolo di shortfall Creation-Date: 200412 Number: 0037 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0037 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato Author-X-Name-First: Alessia Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato Author-Name: A. Lamberti Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Lamberti Title: Il problema delle stime preliminari nelle indagini congiunturali: una breve rassegna ed una proposta Creation-Date: 200412 Number: 0038 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0038 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Massimiliano Corradini Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano Author-X-Name-Last: Corradini Title: Estensione della tecnica degli alberi bi/tri-nominali ad alberi N-nomiali. Applicazione ai processi diffusivi con salto Abstract: Nel presente articolo è proposta un'estensione della tecnica degli alberi bi/tri-nomiali, largamente usata per la valutazione di titoli derivati, ad una tecnica basata sulla costruzione di alberi N-nomiali, con N intero arbitrario. Il vantaggio di tale tecnica consiste essenzialmente in 1) utilizzo di probabilità di transizione da un nodo ad un altro deducibili direttamente dall'evoluzione del sottostante in ambito "risk-neutral"; 2) facilità di realizzazione del codice per il calcolo numerico e notevole precisazione di calcolo in tempo brevi; 3) agevolte trattazione dei processi diffusivi ocn salto. I risultati ottenuti nel presente articolo sono simili a quelli ottenibili tramite uno schema di calcolo basato sull'integrazione in spazi di dimensione infinita (integrali di cammino di Feynmann). Si confrontino, relativamente al caso di processi stocastici puramente diffusivi, i riferimenti bibliografici. Length: 23 Creation-Date: 200406 Number: 0039 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0039 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Massimiliano Corradini Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano Author-X-Name-Last: Corradini Title: Un modello per la dinamica del prezzo a pronti dell'elettricità Abstract: Nel presente articolo si propone un nuovo modello per l'evoluzione del prezzo a pronti dell'elettricità basato sull'ipotesi che esistano due regimi diversi per la sua evoluzione: uno "normale" in cui i prezzi si discostano poco dai fattori che determinano il costo di produzione ed uno "eccezionale" in cui i prezzi subiscono salti improvvisi, assumendo valori molto grandi, affine quindi alla classe degli "switching-model". Tale comportamento nella dinamica dei prezzi è ottenuto generalizzando opportunamente la nozione di coefficiente di "mean-reversion": in particolare supponendo che esso sia un processo stocastico dipendente esplicitamente dal livello del prezzo. Ciò consente di ottenere un'evoluzione del prezzo dell'eletticità che, a differenza degli "switching-model", è markoviana. Inoltre il livello di complessità del modello proposto è analogo ai modelli con coefficiente di "mean-reversion" deterministico. Length: 16 Creation-Date: 200409 Number: 0040 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0040 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Author-Name: Salvatore Monni Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Monni Title: Measuring human and Sustainable Development: An Integrated Approach for European Countries Abstract: During the last few years, sustainable development has represented one of the most important policy goals at global level and how to design specific policy actions, measuring performance and results continues to present a challenge. Scientific research has explored different analysis directions in order to identify a synthetic indicator to evaluate policy planning and achievements that goes beyond traditional income indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In consideration of the social dimension of sustainable development, including health, education and employment, the Human Development Index (HDI) of the United Nations Development Programme represents a widely accepted methodology to be used as a starting point for building a more sustainable-oriented development index. The aim of this paper is to identify a numerical measure of what Amartya Sen defined as “sustainable human development” using a human development framework and adapt it taking into account more specific environmental aspects. For this purpose, building a complex Sustainable Human Development Index (SHDI) may be a difficult task because of data availability and the European countries – especially the European Union - could be a useful pilot area for testing the methodology. The most recent efforts of the EU to standardize statistical information at country level enable us to build more complex indicators, including those with economic, social and environmental dimensions. Long-term sustainability requires the maintenance of capital stock to guarantee constant or growing welfare levels. In a human development perspective, the sustainability condition has been directly analysed on the well-being side, assuming that a constant or growing SHDI could be the result of constant growing capital assets. An SHDI represents the core element of a comparative analysis to assess the effectiveness and the distributional effects of European policies, including environmental actions. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the results will enable us to underline the key factors of effective sustainable human development and, at the same time test the real meaning of such a modified composite index compared with the existing GDP and HDI. Length: 56 Creation-Date: 200410 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp41.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0041 Classification-JEL: O15,Q01;Q56 Keywords: human development, sustainable development, sustainability indicators Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0041 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Mendicino Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Mendicino Author-Name: Andrea Pescatori Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Pescatori Title: Credit Frictions, housing prices and optimal monetary policy Rules Abstract: We try to assest the role of household indebtedness and housing prices in the optimal design of monetary policy rules. Even though the relevance of liquidity constraints for consumption behavior has been well documented in the empirical and theoretical literature little attention has been given to credit frictions at the household level in the monetary business cycle litterature. This paper represent the first attemp of a welfare-based monetary policy evaluation in a model with heterogeneous agents and households' credit constraints. In order to evaluate optimal monetary policy we take advantage of the recent advances in computational economics by following the approach illustrated by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2003). Length: 19 Creation-Date: 200412 Number: 0042 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0042 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Mendicino Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Mendicino Title: Credit Market Development, Economic Performance and Business Cycle Volatility Abstract: This paper studies the role of credit market development in an economy with credit frictions. I examine how the provision of credit in connection with collateral assets affects both economic performance and business cycle volatility. First, I analyse the macroeconomic implications of an improvement in the tinancial market that allows for a higher degree of access to the credit market. Then, I study how different levels of credit market development affect the vulnerability of the economy to major adverse shocks. This paper sheds light on the trade off between efficiency and stability over the business cycle. In the framework of an economy in which credit contraints arise because borrowers cannot force lenders to repay, I show that, as expected, facilitating collateralized dept financing implies an increase in efficiency in terms of production. Moreover, I also show how the rise in collateral/asset prices is a direct consequence of credit markek development. Last, but most intriguing I demonstrate that the higher output volatility over the business cycle is associated with an higher degree of access to the credit market. Length: 26 Creation-Date: 200503 Number: 0043 Classification-JEL: E21, E30, E32, E44, E51, G12, G21, G33 Keywords: Credit market development, credit frictions, heterogeneous agents, business cycle Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0043 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alessandra Bonfiglioli Author-X-Name-First: Alessandra Author-X-Name-Last: Bonfiglioli Author-Name: Caterina Mendicino Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Mendicino Title: Financial Liberalization, Bank Crises and Growth: Assessing the links Abstract: This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalizations spurns on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with oper financial system and good institutions. The positive effect of financial liberalization is robust to different definitions. While the removal of capital account restrictions is effective by increasing financial depth, equity market liberalization affects growth directly. The empirical analysis is performed through GMM dynamic panel data estimations on a panel of 90 countries observed in the period 1975-1999. Length: 18 Creation-Date: 200503 Number: 0044 Classification-JEL: C23, F02, G15, O11 Keywords: Capital account liberalization, equity market liberalization, financial development, institutions, dynamic panel data Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0044 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Silvia Terzi Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Author-X-Name-Last: Terzi Title: Perfect aggregation in linear models: a geometrical insight Length: 9 Creation-Date: 200504 Number: 0045 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0045 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Conigliani Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Conigliani Author-Name: Andrea Tancredi Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Tancredi Title: A bayesian semi-parametric approach for cost-effectiveness analysis in health economics Abstract: We consider the problem of assessing new and existing technologies for their cost-effectiveness in the case where data on both costs and efficacy are available from a clinical trial, and we address it by means of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve in the simple case where efficacy is measured as a binary outcome. We consider a Bayesian approach, and in recognising that cost data usually exhibit highly skew, heavy-tailed and, possibly multi-modal distributions, we introduce a model for costs composed of a piecewise constant density up to an unknown endpoint, and a generalised Pareto distribution for the remaining tail. Length: 11 Creation-Date: 200508 Number: 0046 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0046 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Author-Name: Riccardo Crescenzi Author-X-Name-First: Riccardo Author-X-Name-Last: Crescenzi Author-Name: Fabrizio De Filippis Author-X-Name-First: Fabrizio Author-X-Name-Last: De Filippis Author-Name: Luca Salvatici Author-X-Name-First: Luca Author-X-Name-Last: Salvatici Title: Bargaining coalitions in the agricultural negotiations of the Doha Round: similarity of interests or strategic choices? An empirical assessment Abstract: The paper aims at understanding the structural features of the bargaining coalition in the Doha Round of the WTO. We provide an empirical assessment of the preferences of each negotiating actor looking at general economics indicators, development levels, structure of the agriculural sectors, and trade policies for agriculural products. Bargaining coalitions are analyzed by grouping countries through a cluster analysis procedure. The clusters are compared with existing coalitions, in order to assess their degree of possible "defectors", i.e. countries that according to their economic conditions and policies seem to be relatively less committed to the positions of the coalition they join. Length: 61 Creation-Date: 200510 Number: 0047 Keywords: trade negotiations, bargaining coalitions, WTO, cluster analysis Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0047 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Floriana Filippini Author-X-Name-First: Floriana Author-X-Name-Last: Filippini Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Title: Portfolio selection: a linear approach with dual expected utility Abstract: This paper analyses the portfolio selection problem under the non-expected utility theory. We assume that the decision maker ranks the alternatives by using a specific Dual Expected Utility. This function allows returns which are less than or equal to a fixed benchmark to be weighted in a different way from those greater than the fixed benchmark. In this model the implicit risk measure is more general than the standard deviation and it coincides with the downside risk only due to the appropriate choices of the parameters. Under normally distributed returns and appropriate choices of the benchmark, the approach suggested is equivalent to the Markowitz model in term of efficient frontier and moreover has the advantage of using linear programming to abtain the optimal portfolio. It can thus handle high dimensional problem. We also show result obtained by implementing the model on the Italian stock market. Length: 22 Creation-Date: 200510 Number: 0048 Keywords: dual expected utility, portfolio selection, linear programming Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0048 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Roberto Basile Author-X-Name-First: Roberto Author-X-Name-Last: Basile Author-Name: Marco Causi Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Causi Title: Le determinanti dei flussi migratori nelle province italiane: 1991-2001 Abstract: La nostra ipotesi è che, in seguito alla riduzione dei trasferimenti pubblici al Sud d’Italia registrata durante la prima parte degli anni novanta, le famiglie meridionali abbiano percepito una contrazione del loro reddito permanente. In seguito alla svalutazione della lira nel 1992 i territori con più forte base industriale del Centro-Nord, e in particolare del Nord-Est e del Centro, hanno trainato la ripresa economica della seconda metà del decennio. Ciò ha contribuito a determinare nella seconda metà del decennio una ripresa dei flussi migratori interni. Alla luce dei cambiamenti occorsi durante gli anni novanta, in questo lavoro si studia l’effetto delle determinanti tradizionali dei tassi migratori netti nelle province italiane - definiti come differenze tra flussi in entrata e flussi in uscita da una provincia, rapportate alla popolazione residente - nel quinquennio 1991-1995 (quando i flussi migratori seguivano ancora una fase discendente) ed in quello 1996-2000 (caratterizzato da una ripresa dei movimenti migratori interni). I risultati dell’analisi econometrica suggeriscono che nel primo periodo i tassi migratori netti sono stati debolmente o non significativamente influenzati dalle variabili economiche classiche come il tasso di disoccupazione, il livello di reddito disponibile e la base industriale della provincia (definita come il peso dell’industria sull’intera economia). Nel periodo 1996-2000 il comportamento dei flussi migratori sembra, invece, rispondere più fedelmente agli schemi tradizionali. Per il secondo periodo si stimano, infatti, coefficienti più elevati e statisticamente significativi delle variabili economiche. In entrambi i periodi sembra aver svolto un ruolo determinante la struttura per età della popolazione. Length: 33 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp49.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0049 Classification-JEL: J61, N94 Keywords: migrazione del lavoro, Italia Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0049 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Author-Name: Floriana Filippini Author-X-Name-First: Floriana Author-X-Name-Last: Filippini Title: Portfolio Selection with minimum transaction lots: an approach with dual expected utility Abstract: In this paper we analyse the portfolio selectionproblem with minimum transactionlots in the context of non-expected utility theory. We assume that the decisionmaker ranks the alternatives by using a specific DualExpectedUtility. This functionallows portfolio values less or equal a fixed benchmark tobe weighted inadifferent way from values greater than the fixedbenchmark. Under normallydistributedreturns and opportunechoice ofthe benchmark, the suggested approach leads to an NP-complete problemandhas the advantage ofusing mixed linear programming to obtainthe optimal portfolio. We also show resultsobtained by implementing the model on the Italian stock market. (keywords: dual expectedutility, portfolio selection, NP-completeness, linear programming with mixed variables) Length: 23 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp50.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0050 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0050 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alberto Feduzi Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Feduzi Title: On the relationship between keynes´s conception of evidential weight and the ellsberg paradox Abstract: A number of scholars have noted that Ellsberg’s seminal 1961QJE critique of the subjective expected utility model bears certain resemblances to ideas expressed in J. M. Keynes’s earlier 1921 A Treatise on Probability. Ellsberg did not mention Keynes’s work in his article, but did do so in his doctoral dissertation submitted in 1962 and recently published in 2001. This gives rise to a number of interesting questions concerning the relationship between the contributions of the two authors. The present paper, drawing in part on a conversation with Ellsberg, attempts to answer these questions. The main conclusions that emerge are that Ellsberg formulated the ideas advanced in the QJE article before having read, and thus independently of, Keynes’s work, and that, even though he later recognised the importance and originality of Keynes’s work in his PhD dissertation, he did not fully appreciate the constructive part of Keynes’s analysis. 1. Introduction The last twenty years have seen a revival of Length: 32 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp51.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0051 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0051 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Causi Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Causi Author-Name: Antonio Ranieri Author-X-Name-First: Antonio Author-X-Name-Last: Ranieri Title: La Programmazione dei fondi Strutturali: vincoli “Dall’alto”, paradossi nell’attuazione e uso della valutazione Length: 24 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp52.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0052 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0052 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Causi Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Causi Author-Name: Giovanni Barbieri Author-X-Name-First: Giovanni Author-X-Name-Last: Barbieri Title: Lo Sviluppo locale italiano fra il 1981 e il 2001 alla luce della Geografia dei Sistemi locali del lavoro Length: 39 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp53.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0053 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0053 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Ballin Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Ballin Author-Name: Mauro Scanu Author-X-Name-First: Mauro Author-X-Name-Last: Scanu Author-Name: Paola Vicard Author-X-Name-First: Paola Author-X-Name-Last: Vicard Author-Email: vicard@uniroma3.it Title: Model assisted approaches to complex survey sampling from finite populations using Bayesian Networks Abstract: A class of estimators based on the dependency structure of a multivariate variable of interest and the survey design is defined. The dependency structure is the one described by the Bayesian networks. This class allows ratio type estimators as a subclass identified by a particular dependency structure. It will be shown by a Monte Carlo simulation how the adoption of the estimator corresponding to the population structure is more efficient than the others. It will also be underlined how this class adapts to the problem of integration of information from two surveys through probability updating system of the Bayesian networks. Length: 28 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp54.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0054 Keywords: Graphical models, probability update, survey design Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0054 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: Corporate valuations and the merton model Abstract: In recent years both practitioners and academics have realised that traditional discounted cash flow models erroneously consider the option value embedded in firms. Hence equity and debt valuation methodologies based on option theory have recently become quite popular. Such methodologies take inspiration from the Merton (1974) model which was originally introduced to measure the impact of default risk on corporate bonds yields. Thirty years later the Merton model for its simplicity and rigour remains unrivalled and is the basis of some of the most sophisticated credit risk models. In this paper it will be shown how practitioners often improperly adapt the Merton model for aims beyond its original scope. Length: 17 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp55.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0055 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0055 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marisa Cenci Author-X-Name-First: Marisa Author-X-Name-Last: Cenci Author-Name: Massimiliano Corradini Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano Author-X-Name-Last: Corradini Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: Dynamic portfolio selection in a dual expected utility theory framework Abstract: In this paper the dynamic portfolio selection problem is studied for the first time in a dual utility theory framework. The Wang transform is used as distortion function and well diversified optimal portfolios result both with and without short sales allowed. Length: 20 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp56.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0056 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0056 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: Convertible bonds and volatility structure Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a two-factor pricing model for convertible bonds, paying particular attention to the impact of volatility in the valuation process as suggested in previous studies. The model here proposed is discrete and the sources of uncertainty are the risk-free spot rate and the firm asset value. Length: 22 Creation-Date: 200512 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp57.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0057 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0057 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale Tridico Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: Tridico Title: Istituzioni economiche e cambiamento istituzionale tra vecchi e nuovi istituzionalisti Abstract: Il ruolo delle istituzioni economiche e del loro cambiamento, nell’analisi economica è stato a lungo sottovalutato o ignorato dagli economisti “main stream”. In questo saggio, dopo aver illustrato le necessarie definizioni che concernono l’economia istituzionalista e il loro ruolo nell’economia, presenteremo una rassegna della letteratura istituzionalista, concentrandoci in particolare sul confronto tra la vecchia (Veblen, Commons, Mithchell, ecc) e la nuova economia istituzionalista (Coase, Williamson, North, ecc). L’elemento essenziale che distingue i due approcci è l’individualismo metodologico, a cui la nuova economia istituzionalista rimane legata al contrario della vecchia che lo rifiuta. Questa differenza è fondamentale al fine di ammettere, o meno, la possibilità di processi di massimizzazione da parte degli agenti economici. In seguito affronteremo il delicato problema del cambiamento istituzionale. Infine, presenteremo tre modelli istituzionalisti (Olson et al., 1998; Rodrik, 1999; Jones e Hall, 1998) che, a nostro avviso, evidenziano bene lo stretto legame che esiste tra sviluppo economico da una parte, e governance, istituzioni e gestione del cambiamento istituzionale dall’altra. Length: 51 Creation-Date: 200602 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp58.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0058 Keywords: Il ruolo delle istituzioni economiche e del loro cambiamento, nell’analisi economica è stato a Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0058 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale Tridico Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: Tridico Title: Institutional change and human development in transition economies Abstract: Transition economies (i.e. Central Eastern Europe Countries and Former Soviet Union Republics) have undergone an enormous transformation since 1989-1991. After the recession of the early 1990’s, some of these economies experienced a GDP recovery, at a different pace, with different outcomes in terms of economic growth and social performance (i.e. human development, employment, poverty, etc). The aim of this paper is to answer the following research question: was human development concurrent with economic growth during transition towards the market economy? I claim that economic growth is not always concurrent with human development: economic growth can contribute to increase the level of human development, but is not “the means” to human development. The income is not the final aim. On the contrary, the final aim is the well-being of individuals and the human development. Human development is considered to be a process which allows for an environment where people enjoy long, healthy and creative lives (as defined by the United Nations Development Programme, UNDP). Using an OLS model, human development variables were correlated with GDP per capita. I found out that, in transition economies, investing in human development is a sufficient, yet not a necessary condition for economic growth. GDP growth, then, requires human development. In this context institutions and institutional policies are crucial for a development process. In fact, for better distribution and access to resources as well as for social cohesion, well-designed institutions are needed. Length: 51 Creation-Date: 200602 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp59.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0059 Keywords: Transition, Development, Institutions Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0059 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mario Denni Author-X-Name-First: Mario Author-X-Name-Last: Denni Author-Name: Harald Gruber Author-X-Name-First: Harald Author-X-Name-Last: Gruber Title: The diffusion of broadband telecommunications: the role of competition Abstract: This paper addresses the determinants of diffusion of broadband infrastructure by looking at the U.S. Federal States. It tries to identify in particular to what extent intra- and inter -platform competition contribute to accelerating the speed of diffusion. Panel data analysis results indicate that both types of competition significantly affect the rate of diffusion, although with different effect. Intra-platform competition seems to have a positive impact only initially on the rate of diffusion but then dissipates. For the longer term, inter -platform has a much more important role in driving the rate of diffusion. The study takes account of the impact of other variables measuring competition in the telecommunications sector as well. Length: 29 Creation-Date: 200604 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp60.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0060 Classification-JEL: L1, L86, L96, O3 Keywords: Broadband; Technological diffusion; Regulation and competition Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0060 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mario Denni Author-X-Name-First: Mario Author-X-Name-Last: Denni Author-Name: G. Frewer Author-X-Name-First: G. Author-X-Name-Last: Frewer Title: New evidence on the relationship beetween crude oil and petroleum product prices Abstract: The present study aims at providing new evidence on the price re- lationships between crude oil and petroleum products. We employ single-equation error correction models (ECM) in which both changes in crude oil price and deviations from the long-run equilibrium are used to explain product price dynamics. A GARCH structure is applied to models' residuals to account for the time-varying volatility. Our key piece of innovation is the introduction of re¯ning margin e®ects to the analysis of the asymmetric products price movements. Results suggest that the overall balance in the re¯nery sector plays an important part in the adjustment to crude price shocks. Length: 48 Creation-Date: 200612 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp61.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0061 Classification-JEL: E32, C22, D40, Q40 Keywords: Oil prices; Market integration; Cointegration; Error correction models; Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0061 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Author-Name: Salvatore Monni Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Monni Title: Environment, human development and economic growth Abstract: Over the last few years, environmental issues have entered into policy design, particularly development and growth policies. Natural resources are considered necessary production inputs and environmental quality is considered a welfare determinant. The integration of environmental issues into economic growth and development theories and empirics is currently widely analyzed in the literature. The effects of natural resources endowment on economic growth are mainly analyzed through the so-called Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH) whereas the effects of economic growth on environmental quality are part of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Furthermore, recent contributions on RCH and EKC have shown the important role of institutions and human development dimensions in building a sustainable development path. In this paper, we attempt to analyze the causal relationships between economic growth, human development and sustainability combining the RCH and EKC models and adopting a human development perspective. Length: 42 Creation-Date: 200604 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp62.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0062 Classification-JEL: O15, Q01, Q56 Keywords: Natural resources, Sustainability, Human Development, Trade Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0062 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Title: Commercio internazionale e ambiente naturale: dinamiche e interazioni Abstract: The aim of this paper is to describe a general overview of the large number of theoretical and empirical studies that analyze the relationships between trade openness and environment. In Section 1, the paper presents a first description of the multidimensional links between a general definition of globalization and the effects on environment and natural resources. In Section 2, there is a more specific analysis on the impacts of trade liberalization process on the environmental degradation caused by increasing polluting emissions. A comparative advantages model is therefore described as a general framework for evaluating degradation effects linked to increasing trade flows. In Section 3, the specific relationships between trade openness and natural resources exploitation are analyzed, distinguishing between exhaustible and renewable resources. Finally, a specific model analysing the effects of property rights regimes on the resource exploitation choices in case of trade openness is described. Length: 41 Creation-Date: 200606 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp63.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0063 Classification-JEL: F18, H23, O13, Q56 Keywords: International Trade, Environment, Natural resources, Pollution Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0063 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Conigliani Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Conigliani Author-Name: Andrea Tancredi Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Tancredi Title: Comparing parametric and semi-parametric approaches for bayesian cost-effectiveness analyses in health economics Abstract: We consider the problem of assessing new and existing technologies for their cost-effectiveness in the case where data on both costs and effects are available from a clinical trial, and we address it by means of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. The main difficulty in these analyses is that cost data usually exhibit highly skew and heavytailed distributions, so that it can be extremely difficult to produce realistic probabilistic models for the underlying population distribution, and in particular to model accurately the tail of the distribution, which is highly influential in estimating the population mean. Here, in order to integrate the uncertainty about the model into the analysis of cost data and into cost-effectiveness analyses, we consider an approach based on Bayesian model averaging: instead of choosing a single parametric model, we specify a set of plausible models for costs and estimate the mean cost with its posterior expectation, that can be obtained as a weighted mean of the posterior expectations under each model, with weights given by the posterior model probabilities. The results are compared with those obtained with a semi-parametric approach that does not require any assumption about the distribution of costs. 1 Introduction Length: 26 Creation-Date: 200602 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp64.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0064 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0064 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Valentini Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Valentini Title: Ristrutturazione del sistema creditizio, piccole e medie imprese e crescita economica nel mezzogiorno Abstract: Il presente lavoro si inserisce nel dibattito in corso tra gli economisti e gli operatori economici relativo alla valutazione dell’impatto del processo di ristrutturazione del sistema bancario nazionale, iniziato nei primi anni dello scorso decennio, sulla crescita delle economie meridionali, la cui struttura economica è costituita prevalentemente da piccole e medie imprese. Length: 42 Creation-Date: 200610 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp65.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0065 Classification-JEL: G21, O16 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0065 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marco Ballin Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Ballin Author-Name: Mauro Scanu Author-X-Name-First: Mauro Author-X-Name-Last: Scanu Author-Name: Paola Vicard Author-X-Name-First: Paola Author-X-Name-Last: Vicard Author-Email: vicard@uniroma3.it Title: Paradata and Bayesian networks: a tool for monitoring and troubleshooting the data production process Abstract: The problem of monitoring and managing the data production process by means of process flow indicators is presented in a decision theory framework. Here it is shown how to represent and solve the decision problem via influence diagrams, i.e. Bayesian network supporting decisions. An illustrative example is provided. Length: 20 Creation-Date: 200610 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp66.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0066 Keywords: Expected utility, graphical models, probability update, Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0066 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: A. Rodriguez-Pose Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Rodriguez-Pose Author-Name: Riccardo Crescenzi Author-X-Name-First: Riccardo Author-X-Name-Last: Crescenzi Title: R&D, spillovers, innovatoin systems and the genesis of regional growth in Europe Abstract: Research on the impact of innovation on regional economic performance in Europe has fundamentally followed three approaches: a) the analysis of the link between investment in R&D, patents, and economic growth; b) the study of the existence and efficiency of regional innovation systems; and c) the examination of geographical diffusion of regional knowledge spillovers. These complementary approaches have, however, rarely been combined. Important operational and methodological barriers have thwarted any potential crossfertilization. In this paper, we try to fill this gap in the literature by combining in one model R&D, spillovers, and innovation systems approaches. A multiple regression analysis is conducted for all regions of the EU-25, including measures of R&D investment, proxies for regional innovation systems, and knowledge and socio-economic spillovers. This approach allows us to discriminate between the influence of internal factors and external knowledge and institutional flows on regional economic growth. The empirical results highlight how the interaction between local and external research with local and external socio-economic and institutional conditions determines the potential of every region in order to maximise its innovation capacity. They also indicate the importance of proximity for the transmission of economically productive knowledge, as spillovers show strong distance decay effects. In the EU-25 context, only the innovative efforts pursued within a 180 minute travel radius have a positive and significant impact on regional growth performance. Length: 45 Creation-Date: 200610 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp67.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0067 Classification-JEL: R11, R12, R58 Keywords: Economic growth, innovation, R&D, knowledge, spillovers, Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0067 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ugo Gentilini Author-X-Name-First: Ugo Author-X-Name-Last: Gentilini Title: How are We doing on Poverty and Hunger Reduction? A New Measyre of Country-Level Progress Abstract: Progress toward eradicating poverty and hunger is patchy and generally too slow. New impetus is needed to meet internationally accepted goals, better informed by recent progress and challenges. The United Nations Millennium Development Goal No. 1 (MDG-1) aims to halve the proportion of people affected by poverty and hunger by 2015. The five indicators officially employed to assess progress toward MDG-1 reflect different deprivations of basic human capabilities, and progress in one domain does not guarantee progress in each of the others. Building on the statistical methodology of the widely-adopted Human Development Index, a new composite indicator – Poverty and Hunger Index (PHI) – that combines on all 5 measures together provides original insights on poverty and hunger trajectories. A number of findings emerge from the analysis, suggesting that the new index can play an important role in informing the policy debate on the prominence of all MDG-1 dimensions. Length: 52 Creation-Date: 200612 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp68.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0068 Classification-JEL: O15, O19, O57, Q18 Keywords: poverty, hunger, malnutrition, food insecurity, inequality, MDGs. Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0068 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Author-Name: Salvatore Monni Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Monni Title: Gender disparities in Italy from a Human Development Perspective Abstract: (1) All citizens have equal social dignity and are equal before the law, without distinction of sex, race, language, religion, political opinion, personal and social conditions. (2) It is the duty of the Republic to remove those obstacles of an economic or social nature which constrain the freedom and equality of citizens, thereby impeding the full development of the human person and the effective participation of all workers in the political, economic and social organisation of the country.* Sixty years after the first political election in which women voted in Italy (1946), and considering that the Article 3 of the Italian Constitution reminds the role of the republic to promote formal (art. 3.1) and substantial (art. 3.2) equality of Italian citizens, the aim of this paper is to analyse, which is situation of the gender disparities in Italy and how such disparities are distributed among Italian regions. In order to quantify such disparities a comprehensive framework for assessment is required. First, we will compare at national and regional level traditional indicators as income per capita, employment and educational level. Secondly, adopting a human development perspective, we will build some regional Gender Human Development indices with the aim to catch the disparities in terms of capabilities for men and women. Finally to better understand our results, we will build an index of empowerment using data concerning number of seats in national parliament and regional assemblies, in order to catch such existing disparities from a different point of view. In our opinion, the gender disparities in the empowerment dimension and the gender disparities in the other social dimensions are mutually reinforcing, where lack of equally distributed political power corresponds to less gender-related policy actions, and therefore wider disparities in daily life. Length: 30 Creation-Date: 200612 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp69costantini-monni.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0069 Classification-JEL: I3, J16, J21, O15, R1 Keywords: Gender disparities, Human Development, Empowerment Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0069 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale Tridico Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: Tridico Title: Regional Human Development in transition economics: the role of institutions Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse regional difference yield in terms of Human Development (HD) in Poland. During transition, western Polish regions grew more than eastern regions, and differences in terms of GDP per capita are evident. Nevertheless, higher GDP per capita in the West did not produce a higher level of non-income dimension indicators (i.e., Education and Life expectancy). On the contrary eastern regions, although they have a lower level of GDP per capita, have a higher level of non-income dimension indicators. This contradicts a neoclassical argument of considering HD as a proxy of GDP per capita. GDP growth is not a sufficient condition for HD. Along with GDP growth HD requires investments in social dimensions. Length: 37 Creation-Date: 200712 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp70.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0070 Classification-JEL: R11, I10, I21; P25 Keywords: Regional Disparities, Human Development, Transition economics, Poland. Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0070 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Title: WTO Agricultural Negotiations and Developing Countries: an overview Abstract: The aim of this paper is to give a broad overview of the main issues faced by developing countries in a context of trade liberalization as part of the multilateral agricultural trade negotiations in the WTO Doha Round. The bargaining positions of developing countries in the Doha Round are described. A comparison of empirical results on possible outcomes of a Doha Round agreement follows with a focus on impacts in terms of poverty reduction. Results are then analyzed using the main theoretical findings on trade-poverty links and the specific role of preference erosion in order to shed some light on potential failures of a trade reform in the absence of complementary policy actions. Length: 50 Creation-Date: 200712 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp71.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0071 Classification-JEL: F13, I32, Q17 Keywords: Agriculture, Developing Countries, Multilateral Trade Negotiations, Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0071 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gaetano Bloise Author-X-Name-First: Gaetano Author-X-Name-Last: Bloise Title: Efficiency and prices in economies of overlapping generations Abstract: In a general economy of overlapping generations, I introduce a notion of uniform ine±ciency, corresponding to the occurrence of a Pareto improvement with a small uniform destruction of resources (Debreu [11]). I provide necessary and su±cient conditions for uniform ine±ciency in terms of competitive equilibrium prices. Minimal assumptions are needed for such a complete characterization; moreover, proofs reduce to simple and short direct arguments. Finally, I verify that uniform ine±ciency is preserved under perturbations of the endowments, a property that has not been established for the canonical notion of ine±ciency. Remarkably, an allocation is unifo Length: 20 Creation-Date: 200712 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp72.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0072 Classification-JEL: D52, D61 Keywords: Overlapping generations; e±ciency; competitive prices; Cass Criterion; social security Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0072 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Riccardo Crescenzi Author-X-Name-First: Riccardo Author-X-Name-Last: Crescenzi Title: Undermining the Principle of Concentration? Eu development policies and the Socio-Economic Disadvantage Of European Regions Abstract: A number of empirical analyses has found evidence that the impact of the EU structural funds on the growth performance of assisted regions is comparatively weak and has failed to promote the objective of economic and social cohesion. This literature explains this lack of convergence in terms of the policies implemented, which, from this perspective, should be considered as social (or redistributive) rather than as development policies. This paper puts forward a different explanation for the failure to deliver the expected cohesion, namely that the distribution of the funds to the regions may have been à priori distorted by either political equilibriums or inaccurate assumptions over the most cost-effective allocation of the funds. As a consequence the principle of concentration has been undermined, as, among the poorest regions in the EU there is little correlation between expenditure and socio-economic disadvantage. In order to assess this potential explanation the geographical distribution of both sources of socio-economic disadvantage and the regional allocation of structural funds are compared, by means of a Heckman two-step selection model. The results show that the sources of disadvantage are more spatially concentrated than the funds devoted to compensating such disadvantage and uncover a weak association between structural disadvantage and EU funding. Consequently, structural policies could prove helpful to promote development in the EU’s lagging regions provided that the necessary corrections are introduced in their allocation mechanism in order to increase the geographical concentration of the funds and by more adequately earmarking the available resources to the most disadvantaged regions, which the analysis indicates as having the best potential for convergence. Length: 31 Creation-Date: 200703 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp73.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0073 Classification-JEL: C24, O18, R11, R58 Keywords: Regional Policy, Regional development, socio-economic Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0073 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Riccardo Crescenzi Author-X-Name-First: Riccardo Author-X-Name-Last: Crescenzi Author-Name: Guido Fabiani Author-X-Name-First: Guido Author-X-Name-Last: Fabiani Title: Globalizzazione e Convergenza dei Sistemi Agro-Alimentari delle economie industriali Abstract: Questo saggio propone un’analisi empirica dell’evoluzione di lungo periodo dei sistemi agro-alimentari mondiali. Con una prospettiva più ampia rispetto agli studi esistenti, che focalizzano prevalentemente il processo di convergenza in termini di produttività, ci si propone di valutare l’evoluzione di un ampio set di variabili strutturali in grado di cogliere la dimensione sistemica del processo produttivo agro-alimentare. In particolare, partendo da un’analisi dei processi di lungo di periodo in atto nei sistemi agro-alimentari si applicheranno, sotto il vincolo della disponibilità di informazioni statistiche, alcune metodologie quantitative per l’analisi dei processi di convergenza economica. Ciò al fine di testare empiricamente l’ipotesi che negli ultimi quattro decenni si sia assistito ad un processo di convergenza dei caratteri strutturali dei sistemi agroalimentari delle economie industriali avanzate (Paesi OECD ad alto reddito). Dinamica che si contrappone alla sostanziale stabilità nei caratteri strutturali dell’insieme dei 108 paesi del mondo per cui sono disponibili informazioni quantitative. In questo senso è possibile parlare di una tendenza di lungo periodo alla formazione di un “convergence club” dei sistemi agro-alimentari dei paesi avanzati. L’utilizzo dell’analisi in componenti principali relativa a diversi intervalli di tempo consente, inoltre, di tracciare una “mappa” dei paesi che via via sono entrati nel “convergence club” e di costruire un “indice del grado di arretratezza” di ciascun sistema agro-alimentare. Tali risultati forniscono importanti indicazioni in merito all’evoluzione dei sistemi agroalimentari all’avanzare del processo di sviluppo dell’economia fornendo utili spunti per l’interpretazione delle dinamiche di lungo periodo in atto sia nei paesi industriali avanzati che in quelli che si avviano a diventarlo. Length: 39 Creation-Date: 200703 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp74.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0074 Classification-JEL: O13, Q10 Keywords: Sistemi agricoli, Sviluppo Agricolo, Analisi di convergenza, Analisi in componenti principali. Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0074 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale Tridico Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: Tridico Title: The determinants of economic growth in emerging economies: a comparative analysis Abstract: Abstract. Over the past decade, most emerging and transition economies are experiencing fast growth, which is above the world average, and a consistent institutional change. The aim of this paper is twofold. First of all, a cross-country analysis of a group of emerging and transition economies in the period 1999-2005 will be carried out in order to understand what determines such growth among these countries. Secondly, a comparative analysis will be carried out. The countries will be classified according to their socio-economic models and institutional variables. Countries will be classified by taking their financial structures and ownership control over firms into consideration (Levine and Kunt, 1999; La Porta et. al., 1999), and we will investigate whether institutions and the type of socio-economic model may have an impact on growth. The central hypothesis of the paper is that explaining economic growth is a complex issue which needs positive interaction of several socio-economic and institutional factors. My analysis suggests that countries can grow with their own “style of capitalism” and economic model, and the determinants of economic growth seem to be the ability of each country to associate appropriate governance and institutions with education level, export activity and non-income dimensions of human development (life expectancy growth and infant mortality reduction). In fact, countries which experienced an increase in non-income dimensions of human development during 1970-2000,as a consequence of appropriate institutions, have sustained economic growth. Length: 38 Creation-Date: 200706 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp75.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0075 Classification-JEL: F430, O430, 0150, G320, I310 Keywords: economic growth, institutions, human development Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0075 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Giunta Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Giunta Author-Name: Domenico Scalera Author-X-Name-First: Domenico Author-X-Name-Last: Scalera Title: L'impresa subfornitrice:redditività,produttività e divari territoriali Abstract: Il lavoro ha per oggetto l’evoluzione del modello di divisione del lavoro fra le imprese nell’industria italiana negli anni ’90. Utilizziamo i dati della “Indagine sulle imprese manifatturiere” condotta periodicamente da Capitalia, che fanno riferimento rispettivamente ai trienni 1994-97 e 1998- 2000. L’analisi econometrica mostra che nel periodo analizzato le imprese subfornitrici hanno beneficiato di migliori performance, in termini di maggiore produttività dei fattori, più alti salari e più elevato rendimento per il capitale investito. Tuttavia, nel processo di crescente ricorso al mercato, il dualismo della struttura industriale italiana si è fortemente riproposto. Length: 38 Creation-Date: 200706 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp76.pdf Number: 0076 Classification-JEL: L200, L220 Keywords: Divisione del lavoro; Subfornitura; Mezzogiorno d’Italia Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0076 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Enrico Sergio Levrero Author-X-Name-First: Enrico Sergio Author-X-Name-Last: Levrero Author-Name: Saverio M. Fratini Author-X-Name-First: Saverio M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fratini Title: Su Mandler e la Indeterminatezza Sraffiana Abstract: Abstract: This paper is aimed at discussing Mandler’s interpretation of Sraffa’s price theory. In particular we will analyse Mandler’s idea that an institutional determination of distribution, suggested by Sraffa, could be solidly advanced only in the case of equilibrium price indeterminacy in intertemporal sequential models. First it will be shown that this kind of indeterminacy arises from an arbitrary use of the tendency to a uniform rate of return on the supply prices of capital goods. Second, it will be pointed out that, when Sraffa’s contribution is placed, as it should, within the classical theory of value and distribution, no price or Sraffian indeterminacy will result. Finally, we will argue that Mandler’s emphasis on the non-arbitrariness of the capital goods endowments, which is at the root of his indeterminacy result, naturally leads to those normal positions of the economy whose only possible consistent determination is to be found in Sraffa’s price theory. Length: 33 Creation-Date: 200707 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp77.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0077 Classification-JEL: B510, D460, D520 Keywords: Sraffa; indeterminacy; sequential equilibria; market incompleteness; classical Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0077 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale De Muro Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: De Muro Author-Name: Francesco Burchi Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Burchi Title: Education for Rural People: A Neglected Key To Food Security Abstract: In the world there are approximately 800 million people who live in condition of food insecurity and illiteracy. This paper shows that education is a key to food security for rural populations in developing countries. Attention is drawn to rural areas because they are traditionally more disadvantaged by national educational policies. The theoretical foundation of this research is that being educated improves rural people’s capacity to diversify assets and activities, increase productivity and income, foster resilience and competitiveness, access information on health and sanitation, strengthen social cohesion and participation: these are all essential elements to ensure food security in the long run. The main findings of this research are the following: first, the association between food insecurity and primary education is very high, while it decreases progressively with basic, secondary, and tertiary education. Such a two-way relationship is expressed through graphical tools and correlation coefficients. Second, the econometric model shows that primary education is a crucial element to reduce food insecurity in rural areas, even when compared to other factors such as access to water, health, and sanitation. Concluding from this model, an increase of access to primary education by 100% causes a decrease of food insecurity by approximately 20% or 24% depending on the definition of food insecurity and its measurement. Finally, since in most of developing countries the majority of people live in rural areas, and since it is in these areas that the largest proportion of world poverty and hunger exists, we can conclude that education for rural people is a relevant tool for promoting overall national food security. Length: 46 Creation-Date: 200707 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp78.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0078 Classification-JEL: I2, Q18, O15, C31 Keywords: Education, Food Security, Human Development, Cross- Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0078 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Author-Name: Carlo Domenico Mottura Author-X-Name-First: Carlo Domenico Author-X-Name-Last: Mottura Title: IAS 39 Hedge Accounting e Interest Rate Risk Management Length: 25 Creation-Date: 200707 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp79.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0079 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0079 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Eduardo Antonelli Author-X-Name-First: Eduardo Author-X-Name-Last: Antonelli Title: Fundamenstos de la oferta agregada¿ Existen posibilidades para la politica macroeconomica ? Abstract: Since no political economy is possible if the aggregate supply function (AS) is vertical and since political economy is always standing, this paper shows some special kind of production functions which are required in order to get the horizontal section of the AS curve and some special kind of labor supply functions which are required too. The paper offers too some econometrics tests of these functions using cross-sections data from several countries (IMF 2004 sources). Length: 54 Creation-Date: 200710 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP80.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0080 Classification-JEL: C2, E2 Keywords: Oferta Agregada; Funciones de producción y Oferta Agregada; Oferta Agregada horizontal Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0080 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Riccardo Crescenzi Author-X-Name-First: Riccardo Author-X-Name-Last: Crescenzi Author-Name: A. Rodriguez-Pose Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Rodriguez-Pose Author-Name: Michael Storper Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Storper Title: The geographical processes behind innovation: a Europe-United States comparative analysis Abstract: The United States and European Union differ significantly in terms of their innovative capacity: the former have been able to gain and maintain world leadership in innovation and technology while the latter continues to lag. Notwithstanding the magnitude of this innovation gap and the political emphasis placed upon it on both sides of the Atlantic, very little systematic comparative analysis has been carried out on its causes. The empirical literature has emphasised the structural differences between the two continents in the quantity and quality of the major ‘inputs’ to innovation: R&D investments and human capital. The very different spatial organisation of innovative activities in the EU and the US – as suggested by a variety of contributions in the field of economic geography – could also influence innovative output. This paper analyses and compares a wide set of territorial processes that influence innovation in Europe and the United States. The higher mobility of capital, population, and knowledge in the US not only promotes the agglomeration of research activity in specific areas of the country but also enables a variety of territorial mechanisms to fully exploit local innovative activities and (informational) synergies. In the European Union, in contrast, imperfect market integration, and institutional and cultural barriers across the continent prevent innovative agents from maximising the benefits from external economies and localised interactions, but compensatory forms of geographical process may be emerging in concert with further European integration. Length: 45 Creation-Date: 200710 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP81.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0081 Classification-JEL: R11, R12, O32, O33 Keywords: Innovation, Research and development, Regions, Spillovers, Agglomeration, Systems of innovation, European Union, United States Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0081 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Massimiliano Corradini Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano Author-X-Name-Last: Corradini Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: Contingent Claim Pricing In A Dual Expected Utility Theory Framework Abstract: This paper investigates the price for contingent claims in a dual expected utility theory framework, the dual price, considering complete arbitrage-free nancial markets. In this framework this dual price is obtained, for the rst time in the literature, without any comonotonicity hypothesis and for contingent claims written on n underlying assets following generic Itô processes. An application is also considered assuming geometric brownian motion for the underlying assets and the Wang transform as distortion function. Length: 16 Creation-Date: 200712 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp82.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0082 Keywords: Contingent Claims Pricing, Dual Utility Theory, Wang Transform. Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0082 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gaetano Bloise Author-X-Name-First: Gaetano Author-X-Name-Last: Bloise Author-Name: Filippo L. Calciano Author-X-Name-First: Filippo L. Author-X-Name-Last: Calciano Title: A Note On The Characterization Of Inefficiency In Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economies Abstract: In this paper, we provide a characterization of interim ine±ciency in stochastic economies of overlapping generations under possibly sequentially incomplete markets. With respect to the established body of results in the literature, we remove the hypothesis of two-period horizons, by considering longer, though uniformly bounded, horizons for generations. The characteri- zation exploits a suitably Modi¯ed Cass Criterion, grounded on the long-rung behavior of compounded safe interest rates and independent of the length of horizons of generations. Thus, the hypothesis of two-period horizons is purely heuristic in establishing a criterion for ine±ciency. In addition, for sequentially incomplete markets, we adopt a suitable notion of unambiguous ine±ciency, separating the ine±cient intertemporal allocation of resources from incomplete risk-sharing. Unambiguous ine±ciency reduces to ine±ciency when markets are sequentially complete. Length: 29 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp83.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0083 Classification-JEL: D52, D61 Keywords: Stochastic overlapping generations economies; ine±ciency; com- Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0083 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Salvatore Monni Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Monni Author-Name: Alessandro Spaventa Author-X-Name-First: Alessandro Author-X-Name-Last: Spaventa Title: Cluster E Distretti Tecnologici: Modelli E Politiche Abstract: Il saggio si propone di esaminare la realtà dei distretti tecnologici come evoluzione del concetto di distretto industriale e di individuare i fattori fondamentali che ne determinano lo sviluppo. A tal fine viene analizzato il caso emblematico del distretto tecnologico di Cambridge la cui evoluzione e le cui caratteristiche fondamentali emergono come essere alla base abbastanza simili a quelle dei nostri distretti manifatturieri. Viene analizzata quindi una realtà italiana, quella del proto distretto di Torino, per cercare di individuare quali siano le differenze e , soprattutto, quali gli ostacoli allo sviluppo di distretti tecnologici nel nostro Paese. Dal confronto emerge come a fare la differenza siano quegli stessi elementi che, invece, sul versante industriale hanno determinato l’affermarsi dei distretti industriali italiani: approccio culturale, trasferimento di conoscenza, capitale sociale e istituzioni (formali e informali). Length: 29 Creation-Date: 200801 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp84.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0084 Classification-JEL: L23, L25 Keywords: Distretti industriali, Distretti tecnologici,Cambridge, Torino. Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0084 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Massimiliano Corradini Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano Author-X-Name-Last: Corradini Author-Name: Andrea Gheno Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Gheno Title: INCOMPLETE FINANCIAL MARKETS AND CONTINGENT CLAIM PRICING IN A DUAL EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY FRAMEWORK Abstract: This paper investigates the price for contingent claims in a dual expected utility theory framework, the dual price, considering arbitrage-free nancial markets. A pricing formula is obtained for contingent claims written on n underlying assets following general Itô processes and without any comonotonicity hypothesis. The formula holds both in complete and incomplete markets and also in constrained markets. An application is also considered assuming geometric Brownian motion for the underlying assets and the Wang transform as distortion function. Length: 23 Creation-Date: 200801 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp85.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0085 Keywords: Contingent Claim Pricing, Dual Utility Theory, Wang Transform, Incomplete Markets Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0085 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mario Tirelli Author-X-Name-First: Mario Author-X-Name-Last: Tirelli Title: CONSTRAINED INEFFICIENCY IN GEI: A GEOMETRIC ARGUMENT Abstract: In this paper we use global analysis to study the welfare properties of general equilibrium economies with incomplete markets (GEI). Our main result is to show that constrained Pareto optimal equilibria are contained in a submanifold of the equilibrium set. This result is explicitly derived for economies with real assets and xed aggregate resources, of which real numeraire assets are a special case. As a by product of our analysis, we propose an original global parametrization of the equilibrium set that generalizes to incomplete markets the classical one, rst, proposed by Lange (1942). Length: 26 Creation-Date: 200801 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp86.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0086 Classification-JEL: D52, D61, D62 Keywords: General equilibrium; incomplete markets; optimality; global analysis Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0086 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Antonio Falvo Author-X-Name-First: Antonio Author-X-Name-Last: Falvo Author-Name: Alessio Marabucci Author-X-Name-First: Alessio Author-X-Name-Last: Marabucci Title: L’ANALISI COSTI BENEFICI APPLICATA ALLE INFRASTRUTTURE DI TRASPORTO Abstract: L’Analisi Costi Benefici (ACB) è il principale strumento di valutazione degli investimenti pubblici. Tale metodologia trae le sue origini dall’Economia del Benessere e nel corso del tempo ha vissuto una fase di allontanamento dai fondamenti teorici che ne hanno costituito, e che ne costituiscono ancora, le fondamenta, facendola divenire sempre più un mero esercizio di stima compiuto adottando uno schema di valutazione “standard”. Il tentativo di regolamentare l’ambito delle analisi economiche, più che quelle finanziare, si scontra con il trade-off esistente tra la possibilità dell’analista di avanzare le proprie ipotesi, arricchendo lo studio (e la letteratura) in merito, e la necessità di semplificare la metodologia e le variabili economiche da quantificare, al fine di rendere il lavoro fruibile al decisore pubblico; questo porta le ACB ad essere troppo semplicistiche e lontane dal quantificare i reali “benefici”, o “malefici”, di cui la collettività godrà, o subirà, sia in fase di realizzazione che di esercizio della nuova infrastruttura. E’ da precisare che le ACB sempre più di frequente sono compiute da figure professionali diverse dall’economista, in particolare dagli ingegneri (civili, trasportasti). La figura dell’ingegnere è di fondamentale importanza in sede di valutazione di un progetto di investimento, soprattutto per quanto riguarda la stima dei costi dell’infrastruttura, siano essi di realizzazione o di esercizio, mentre per il calcolo dei benefici diventa indispensabile il contributo dell’economista. Questa commistione tra le due figure nel tempo ha creato, e sta creando, una nuova professionalità, a cavallo tra le discipline dell’economia e dell’ingegneria, per cui diventa fondamentale creare un linguaggio comune che faccia da raccordo fra le due tecnicalità in modo tale da migliorare sempre di più la qualità dei lavori prodotti. Tali argomenti sono sede di numerosi e vivaci dibattiti. Il presente lavoro vuole proporre elementi innovativi sulla valutazione di partite economiche che spesso vengono stimate in base a procedimenti distaccati dal contesto reale di riferimento o addirittura trascurate per la non conoscenza sia delle relative metodologie di stima sia dei fondamenti teorici che ne sono alla base. L’obiettivo non è quello di colmare i numerosi gap esistenti in materia tra teoria e pratica ma di fornire spunti di riflessione 4 circa il trade-off esistente tra un’analisi puntigliosa e corretta scientificamente, ma che richiede molto tempo per essere implementata, e un’analisi più snella e veloce, fondata su schemi di riferimento prefissati ma più lontano dalla correttezza formale di un calcolo economico ben saldo sulle sue basi teoriche di riferimento. Length: 48 Creation-Date: 200801 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp87.pdf Number: 0087 Keywords: Analisi Costi Benefici, Analisi Economica, Trasporti Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0087 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Paolo Trabucchi Author-X-Name-First: Paolo Author-X-Name-Last: Trabucchi Title: SULLA TRATTAZIONE DEL CAPITALE NEGLI ECONOMISTI MARGINALISTI: IL CAPITALE COME GRANDEZZA SINGOLA IN ALCUNI SCRITTI DEI PRIMI ANNI TRENTA Abstract: The aim of this paper is to call attention on some writings of the early 1930s by D.H. Robertson and J.R. Hicks. These writings present, with a clarity not easily found elsewhere, the two reasons why marginalist economist, who till the last three decades normally treated capital as a single magnitude, were in fact compelled to do so: the fact that only this treatment could lend plausibility to the notion of substitutability between factors of production; and the fact that a different treatment would have made it impossible to include capital among the data of the theory and at the same time to determine a “normal position” of the economic system. As is well known, the notion of capital as a single magnitude has been shown to be untenable during the controversies on capital theory of the 1960s and has consequently been abandoned by orthodox theory. But the implications of this shift in pure theory have not been widely appreciated and it is hoped that looking at the question from an historical point of view might bring some help in clarifying it. Length: 32 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp88.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0088 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0088 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gaetano Bloise Author-X-Name-First: Gaetano Author-X-Name-Last: Bloise Author-Name: Pietro Reichlin Author-X-Name-First: Pietro Author-X-Name-Last: Reichlin Title: ASSET PRICES, DEBT CONSTRAINTS AND INEFFICIENCY Abstract: In this paper, we consider economies with (possibly endogenous) solvency constraints under uncertainty. Constrained ine±ciency corresponds to a feasible redistribution yielding a welfare improvement beginning from ev- ery contingency reached by the economy. A sort of Cass Criterion (Cass [10]) completely characterizes constrained ine±ciency. This criterion involves only observable prices and requires low interest rates in the long-run, exactly as in economies with overlapping generations. In addition, when quantitative limits to liabilities arise from participation constraints, a feasible welfare im- provement, subject to participation, coincides with the introduced notion of constrained ine±ciency. Length: 29 Creation-Date: 200801 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp89.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0089 Classification-JEL: D50, D52, D61, E44, G13. Keywords: Private debt; solvency constraints; default; Cass Criterion; asset Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0089 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato Author-X-Name-First: Alessia Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato Author-Name: Davide Zurlo Author-X-Name-First: Davide Author-X-Name-Last: Zurlo Title: LEAST ORTHOGONAL DISTANCE ESTIMATION OF SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS: A SIMULATION EXPERIMENT Abstract: the aim of this work is to estimate the structural parameters of a simultaneous equation system using both the Limited and Full Information Least Orthogonal Distance Estimator (Pieraccini, 1988; Naccarato, 2007). We compare the results - via simulation experiments – of LODE estimates with those obtained by other methods (Maximum Likelihood, Least Squares). LODE estimators appear to be unbiased and (nearly always) more efficient. Length: 35 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp90.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0090 Keywords: Simultaneous equations models, Orthogonal distance, Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0090 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale De Muro Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: De Muro Author-Name: Salvatore Monni Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Monni Author-Name: Pasquale Tridico Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: Tridico Title: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION: SHADOWS AND LIGHTS IN THE ROMAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODEL Abstract: The paper analyses the changed development path of the metropolitan area of Rome. It aims to analyse the evolution and modernization of Rome in the last thirty years and to examine whether or not the consequent cultural regeneration promotes social cohesion. To this end we focus on both structural and institutional change in Rome, trying to identify the main ruptures and continuities in the development path, as well as the driving forces of the new model. After WWII, Rome was generally considered to be a cumbersome capital city, with a heavy bureaucracy sector and without any strong “local” political forces and social movements capable of bringing about economic and political change. Nevertheless, a new and more democratic local governance and subregulation mode have emerged during the post-Fordist era, which have allowed for the production and reproduction of new socioeconomic relations that in turn influenced a new economic model for the city. This new governance is an important leading theme; it brings about some interesting forms of “democratisation” that are difficult to find in other post-Fordist metropolises. The new economic model is characterised, on the one hand, by the development of the advanced tertiary sector, i.e., knowledge intensive services, tourism services, business services, cultural industries, R&D activities. On the other hand, the Roman model is also characterised – in line with other national and global metropolises – by forms of social exclusion, a new poor, and polarisation between the peripheries and central/high income districts, in a sort of multi-speed development. At the same time, the traditional bureaucracy and its connected “state bourgeoisie”, although still relevant, are no longer dominant. New service activities have brought about new agents, new powers and new institutions. In addition to a review of the literature and an analysis of existing statistics, interviews were undertaken with informed political leaders and economic and social actors of the emblematic moments of change in order to capture the driving forces of the new development path. Length: 34 Creation-Date: 200805 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp91.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0091 Classification-JEL: O15, O18 Keywords: urban modernization, knowledge-based economy, human development Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0091 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Antonella Palumbo Author-X-Name-First: Antonella Author-X-Name-Last: Palumbo Title: I METODI DI STIMA DEL PIL POTENZIALE TRA FONDAMENTI DI TEORIA ECONOMICA E CONTENUTO EMPIRICO Abstract: The paper explores into the empirical estimates of potential output currently produced by international economic institutions. As for the theoretical foundations of the notion, the paper endeavours to show how the shift from the Keynesian notion of potential output as a ceiling on actual production to the idea (to be found in NAIRU models) of a permanent tendency of actual production to gravitate towards potential production has affected the very way in which estimates are currently built. As for the empirical content of the estimates, the survey of the main methods through which potential output is currently estimated aims at showing that the difficulties connected with the attempt to identify empirically the “long-period supply factors” that according to theory should determine the trend, imply that current estimates of potential output often amount to nothing more than elaborate techniques of extraction of a statistical trend from the data on actual output, thus in effect offering an ex-post synthesis of what happened, rather than the ideal benchmark with which to compare actual realizations. This sort of estimates are likely to provide a poor guide to the action of policy-makers. Length: 50 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp92.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0092 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0092 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mario Tirelli Author-X-Name-First: Mario Author-X-Name-Last: Tirelli Author-Name: Sergio Turner Author-X-Name-First: Sergio Author-X-Name-Last: Turner Title: A SOCIAL WELFARE FUNCTION CHARACTERIZING COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA OF INCOMPLETE FINANCIAL MARKETS Abstract: A classic characterization of competitive equilibria views them as feasible allocations maximizing a weighted sum of utilities. It has been applied to establish fundamental properties of the equilibrium notion, such as existence, determinacy, and computability. However, it fails for economies with missing financial markets. We give such a characterization for economies with missing financial markets, by an amended social welfare function. Its parameters capture both the relative importance of households’ welfare–the classic weights–as well as the disagreements among them as to the value of the missing markets. As a by-product, we identify the dimension of the set of interior equilibrium allocations. Length: 15 Creation-Date: 200805 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp93.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0093 Classification-JEL: D52, D61. Keywords: incomplete markets, social welfare function, manifold Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0093 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Caterina Conigliani Author-X-Name-First: Caterina Author-X-Name-Last: Conigliani Title: A BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING APPROACH WITH NON-INFORMATIVE PRIORS FOR COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSES IN HEALTH ECONOMICS Abstract: We consider the problem of assessing new and existing technologies for their cost-effectiveness in the case where data on both costs and effects are available from a clinical trial, and we address it by means of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. The main difficulty in these analyses is that cost data usually exhibit highly skew and heavy-tailed distributions, so that it can be extremely difficult to produce realistic probabilistic models for the underlying population distribution, and in particular to model accurately the tail of the distribution, which is highly influential in estimating the population mean. Here, in order to integrate the uncertainty about the model into the analysis of cost data and into cost-effectiveness analyses, we consider an approach based on Bayesian model averaging in the particular case of weak prior informations about the unknown parameters of the different models involved in the procedure. The main consequence of this assumption is that the marginal densities required by Bayesian model averaging are undetermined. However in accordance with the theory of partial Bayes factors and in particular of fractional Bayes factors, we suggest replacing each marginal density with a ratio of integrals, that can be efficiently computed via Path Sampling. The results in terms of cost-effectiveness are compared with those obtained with a semi-parametric approach that does not require any assumption about the distribution of costs. Length: 22 Creation-Date: 200807 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp94.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0094 Classification-JEL: C11, C15 Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, Cost data, Health economics, MCMC, Non-informative priors, Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0094 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Eleonora Sanfilippo Author-X-Name-First: Eleonora Author-X-Name-Last: Sanfilippo Title: SHORT PERIOD AND LONG PERIOD IN MACROECONOMICS: AN AWKWARD DISTINCTION Abstract: Abstract: The aim of this paper is to show that the use and meaning of the well-known concepts of short period and long period is often unclear and may be seriously misleading when applied to macroeconomic analysis. Evidence of this confusion emerges through examination of four macroeconomics textbooks and reappraisal of the interpretative debate - which took place mainly in the 1980s and 1990s - aiming at establishing whether Keynes’s General Theory should be considered as a short- or long-period analysis of the aggregate level of production. Having explored some possible explanations for the difficulties in defining and applying these methodological tools at a ‘macro’ level, the conclusion is suggested that it would be preferable to abandon this terminology in classifying different aggregate models and simply to make explicit the given factors, independent and dependent variables in each model in use, exactly as Keynes did in Chapter 18 of his major work. Creation-Date: 2008 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/wp95.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0095 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0095 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Saverio M. Fratini Author-X-Name-First: Saverio M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fratini Title: ALCUNE OSSERVAZIONI SULLA FORMA DELLE CURVE DI DOMANDA E OFFERTA DI CAPITALE Abstract: ABSTRACT Some Remarks on the Shape of the Capital Demand and Supply Curves. The present paper is aimed at discussing some results concerning the choice of techniques and the capital theory in order to shed some light on aspects that might cause, and sometimes caused, a misunderstanding. We will show, in particular, that the shape of the demand for capital schedule does not, in general, reveal the presence (or the lack) of phenomena like reverse capital deepening and reswitching. The erroneous belief that the shape of the demand for capital schedule alone were sufficient to foresee possible instability problems seems to come from a conception of capital supply as a given value magnitude, as it is in Wicksell. Therefore, we will argue for the advisability of keeping the difficulties concerning the demand for capital side apart from those concerning its supply side. A method allowing this separation is also provided. Alcune Osservazioni sulla Forma delle Curva di Domanda e Offerta di Capitale. In questo scritto si discutono alcuni risultati riguardanti la scelta delle tecniche e la teoria del capitale con lo scopo di far chiarezza su certi aspetti che potrebbero prestarsi, e talvolta si sono prestati, a fraintendimenti. Si mostrerà, in particolare, che la forma della curva della domanda di capitale in valore non è, in generale, rivelatrice della presenza o meno dei fenomeni di inversione dell’intensità capitalistica e ritorno delle tecniche. L’erroneo convincimento che il solo andamento della curva di domanda di capitale sia sufficiente per prevedere possibili problemi di instabilità sembra derivare da una concezione dell’offerta di capitale come un dato ammontare di valore, come in Wicksell. Così, si sosterrà l’opportunità di tenere distinte le difficoltà riguardanti il lato della domanda di capitale, da quelle riguardanti il lato dell’offerta. Si proporrà inoltre un metodo che consenta di isolare le prime. Length: 32 Creation-Date: 2008 Revision-Date: 2008 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP96.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP96.pdf Number: 0096 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0096 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Giunta Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Giunta Author-Name: Domenico Scalera Author-X-Name-First: Domenico Author-X-Name-Last: Scalera Author-Name: Annamaria Nifo Author-X-Name-First: Annamaria Author-X-Name-Last: Nifo Title: DIVISIONE DEL LAVORO, CRESCITA E DIVARI DI PERFORMANCE NELL’INDUSTRIA ITALIANA DEGLI ANNI ‘90 Abstract: Questo lavoro si inserisce all’interno di un percorso di ricerca (Giunta e Scalera, 2006, 2007) teso a studiare la natura della subfornitura dell’industria manifatturiera italiana, un ambito di ricerca in cui non sono frequenti analisi su campioni rappresentativi di imprese, quanto piuttosto indagini basate su casestudy. Il nostro punto di osservazione si colloca nella seconda metà degli anni ’90, epoca alla quale si fa comunemente risalire l’inizio della prolungata fase di criticità dell’industria italiana, a seguito della sequenza di shock, endogeni ed esogeni, che mutano strutturalmente il contesto di operatività delle imprese. Nell’arco temporale considerato, in Italia come in molti altri paesi, si è accentuato un processo di profondo mutamento, sia quantitativo che qualitativo, nel modello di divisione del lavoro fra le imprese, che trova espressione nella frammentazione internazionale della produzione con la conseguente globalizzazione del mercato dei beni intermedi. Per l’Italia questo ha comportato l’infittimento delle relazioni verticali interaziendali e una significativa emancipazione del subfornitore rispetto al ruolo tradizionale di captive supplier, confinato ad espletare funzioni di mera trasformazione in un contesto prevalentemente monopsonistico, popolato da faceless transactions. In questo periodo infatti, l’impresa subfornitrice si è andata progressivamente evolvendo come un agente in grado di instaurare relazioni di complementarità con l’impresa committente e di partecipare a network produttivi di carattere transnazionale. In tal senso, una prima indicazione del processo di upgrading viene fornita da Giunta e Scalera (2006, 2007): secondo questa interpretazione, nella seconda metà degli anni ’90, le imprese subfornitrici hanno nel complesso beneficiato di migliori performance, in termini di maggiore produttività e remunerazione dei fattori, più alti salari e più elevato rendimento per il capitale investito. Un dato di particolare significatività è che, nel mutato contesto della divisione internazionale del lavoro, il dualismo Nord-Sud della struttura industriale italiana si è riproposto con nettezza. Nella seconda metà degli anni ’90, a differenza del passato, il Mezzogiorno ha in effetti vissuto una fase di intenso approfondimento delle relazioni tra le imprese, quantitativamente paragonabile a quella del resto del paese. Tuttavia le imprese subfornitrici meridionali hanno realizzato performance di produttività e redditività spesso più modeste delle altre imprese, segnalando con ciò l’esistenza di condizioni di relativa marginalità ed arretratezza e sostanziale subalternità rispetto ai committenti, sia locali che nazionali ed esteri. In questo lavoro intendiamo aggiungere un altro tassello all’impianto conoscitivo, andando ad indagare la relazione tra divisione del lavoro e crescita delle imprese nella seconda metà degli anni ’90. Come sostenuto da più parti, il ristagno dell’economia italiana si configura come un problema di crescita rispetto al quale assumono particolare rilevanza le caratteristiche strutturali dell’industria italiana, che si distingue per la persistenza di una elevata polverizzazione della produzione industriale. Dalla “questione dimensionale” (Traù, 1999) nella sua generalità, intendiamo soffermarci in questo lavoro sull’analisi della dinamica di crescita di quel sottoinsieme di imprese il cui successo deriva per larga parte dalla divisione del lavoro e dagli scambi con le altre imprese. Nel seguito, per semplicità, ci riferiremo a questo sottoinsieme usando la categoria di “imprese subfornitrici”, anche se il termine, largamente diffuso negli anni ’70, appare oggi riduttivo rispetto alla complessità dei compiti svolti da questa categoria di agenti. Nella nuova fase dello sviluppo industriale, le imprese che partecipano alla catena del valore si fanno carico di produzioni complesse (si pensi alla pratica della supply system policy), trasferite all’esterno in seguito a scelte di focalizzazione dell’impresa committente su attività diverse da quelle ad alto contenuto di manifattura. Queste imprese spesso sono in possesso di un’elevata capacità relazionale visto che, con l’eccezione della figura dell’assemblatore finale, adempiono con sistematicità al doppio ruolo di subcontractor in and out, nell’esternalizzare a loro volta le attività meno remunerative alla propria catena di subfornitori. Anche in questo ambito si impone l’imperativo della crescita, data la riorganizzazione in corso della divisione del lavoro tra le imprese. Quest’ultima richiede alle imprese subfornitrici italiane di innalzare la propria dimensione di operatività per fronteggiare la crescente concorrenza proveniente dai paesi produttori a più basso costo; ottemperare alle complesse richieste della committenza; sviluppare capacità relazionali lungo la rete transnazionale di appartenenza, modificare il proprio posizionamento. Più specificamente, gli obiettivi di questo lavoro sono i seguenti: a) comprendere se e come, nella seconda metà degli anni ’90, l’attività di subfornitura1 abbia inciso sulla dinamica di crescita delle imprese manifatturiere italiane; b) verificare se, in coerenza con le interpretazioni recentemente avanzate dal filone teorico della Global Commodity Chain, di cui si dirà nel seguito, l’eventuale maggiore crescita delle imprese subforrnitrici sia almeno in parte da attribuire alla capacità di queste ultime di innovare, per conseguire un upgrading nella catena del valore; c) esaminare l’influenza congiunta di subfornitura e localizzazione, verificando, in particolare, se le imprese subfornitrici meridionali abbiano mostrato dinamiche di crescita significativamente differenti rispetto ad omologhe unità localizzate nel Centro-Nord. Per larga parte, il nostro lavoro si colloca all’interno della letteratura teorica ed empirica ispirata alla legge di Gibrat (1931) della crescita proporzionata (Mansfield, 1962). La novità che vorremmo apportare ad un filone già molto “arato” e popolato da infinite varianti di esercizi di stima riguarda l’attenzione rivolta alla capacità esplicativa della scelta di lavorare in subfornitura e al suo impatto sulle dinamiche di crescita. Sorprendentemente, la relazione tra divisione del lavoro, approssimata dall’incidenza delle lavorazioni effettuate in subfornitura, e crescita non risulta essere stata oggetto di particolare attenzione empirica negli esercizi econometrici che hanno indagato le dinamiche di crescita delle imprese italiane. È interessante al proposito notare, come fa Yasuda (2005), che la stessa carenza di indagine empirica sul nesso tra subfornitura e crescita si rileva anche per il Giappone, che, insieme all’Italia, ha fondato larga parte del proprio vantaggio competitivo sulla divisione del lavoro tra imprese territorialmente radicate, organizzate in Italia in distretti industriali, e, in Giappone, in catene gerarchiche egemonizzate dalle grandi imprese. La verifica empirica del ruolo svolto dalla condizione di subfornitore nelle dinamiche di crescita (sia essa nella forma di espansione del fatturato o di aumento dell’occupazione) è dunque oggetto primario del nostro contributo. Abbiamo tuttavia ben chiaro che la significatività di quel nesso è frutto di processi evolutivi profondamente differenziati, sulla cui natura, stante i dati a nostra disposizione, possiamo formulare solo alcune congetture. Più esplicitamente, data l’eterogeneità delle imprese, la dinamica di crescita, oltre a dipendere da caratteristiche strutturali e organizzative, rilevabili dal database di fonte Capitalia che utilizziamo, è strettamente correlata al tipo di filiera in cui si opera e soprattutto al comportamento dell’impresa e al posizionamento che essa acquisisce nel corso del tempo, come emerge dal fruttuoso filone di analisi della Global Commodity Chain (da ora in poi GCC, Gereffi, 1994, 1999; Kaplinsky, 2000; Henderson et al., 2002). Il lavoro è organizzato come segue. Dopo questa introduzione, nel paragrafo 2 proponiamo una disamina delle caratteristiche di maggiore rilievo della corrente divisione del lavoro tra le imprese, mentre nel paragrafo 3 richiamiamo in sintesi l’approccio della GCC. L’analisi empirica costituisce l’oggetto del paragrafo 4 che è, a sua volta, suddiviso in tre sottoparagrafi: nel primo si presentano i dati utilizzati ed alcune statistiche descrittive; nel secondo si dà conto delle metodologie utilizzate; nel terzo si illustrano i risultati ottenuti. Va sottolineato che tra le variabili esplicative della crescita delle imprese si considerano insieme o alternativamente: a) variabili “canoniche” come l’età, la dimensione e la passata dinamica di crescita; b) variabili organizzative tra cui, primariamente, l’incidenza della subfornitura sul fatturato, l’innovazione di prodotto e l’investimento in ICT; c) la variabile strutturale “localizzazione”, per l’interesse che riveste nel nostro lavoro la presenza di eventuali differenziali di crescita tra imprese del Centro- Nord e del Mezzogiorno. Il paragrafo 5 raccoglie le principali conclusioni. Length: 32 Creation-Date: 2008 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP97.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0097 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0097 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Carlo Domenico Mottura Author-X-Name-First: Carlo Domenico Author-X-Name-Last: Mottura Title: Derivati e enti locali: commissioni o ipotesi implicite? Il caso del Long Term Collar Swap Abstract: I contratti del tipo Collar Swap con scadenza a lungo termine rappresentano una tipologia di contratti derivati che è stata oggetto, in questi ultimi anni, di numerose operazioni di finanza derivata da parte di enti locali italiani. Nel lavoro si studia, dal punto di vista tecnico, il problema dell’esistenza e del valore della commissione implicita nel Mark-to-Market del Derivato quotato inizialmente dalla Banca e risultante dal contratto. Parole chiave: strumenti derivati, enti locali, mark-to-market, commissione implicita, volatilità implicita. Length: 35 Creation-Date: 2008 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP99.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0099 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0099 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Saverio M. Fratini Author-X-Name-First: Saverio M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fratini Title: A Remark on Intensive Differential Rent and the Labour Theory of Value in Ricardo Abstract: One of the foundations of the labour theory of value used by Ricardo in the Principles is that rent does not enter into commodity prices. In response to objections raised by Malthus and Say, Ricardo defended this idea by arguing that even where all cultivated land pays rent, the last dose of capital employed on the land does not and no rent is therefore involved in the price of the product of this capital. We will show that this claim, which has been believed true by several generations of economists, is based on a misleading argument and in fact incorrect. In particular, we will show that the intensive differential rent paid on land of the worst quality under cultivation enters into the agricultural product price and so, even in the most favourable case, commodities are no longer exchanged at a ratio corresponding to the relative quantities of labour they embody. Length: 12 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP100.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0100 Classification-JEL: B12, D46 Keywords: differential rent, labour theory of value, methods of production, Ricardo, Sraffa, Smith Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Burchi Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Burchi Title: On the Contribution of Mother’s Education to Children’s Nutritional Capabilities in Mozambique Abstract: This paper examines the role of mother’s education in expanding children’s nutritional capabilities in Mozambique, a country where both educational and nutritional deprivations are dramatic. The econometric results, based on data from the 2003 DHS survey, suggest that mother’s schooling is a key determinant of children’s nutrition, but its direct marginal contribution is declining after completion of primary education. Children whose mothers have completed primary education are far more likely to be well nourished than children whose mothers have lower or no educational attainments. Primary education works through the increase of mother’s general knowledge and, to a less extent, of her nutrition knowledge. Mother’s secondary schooling, instead, contributes only indirectly, by increasing household wealth. A further empirical analysis shows that there is no substantial difference in the benefits of mother’s education depending on whether she resides in urban or rural areas. Finally, the paper provides empirical evidence that female education is essential to improve children’s wellbeing in Mozambique, and that only a small part of this influence works through the traditional economic channel. Length: 34 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP101.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0101 Classification-JEL: J13; O15; I20; R20; O55 Keywords: Development economics; capability approach; nutrition; women’s education; Mozambique. Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0101 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Author-Name: Chiara Martini Author-X-Name-First: Chiara Author-X-Name-Last: Martini Title: The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data Abstract: The increasing attention given to global energy issues and the international policies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have given a renewed stimulus to research interest in the linkages between the energy sector and economic performance at country level. In this paper, we analyse the causal relationship between economy and energy by adopting a Vector Error Correction Model for non-stationary and cointegrated panel data with a large sample of developed and developing countries and four distinct energy sectors. The results show that alternative country samples hardly affect the causality relations, particularly in a multivariate multi-sector framework Length: 40 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP102.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0102 Classification-JEL: C01, C32, C33; O13; Q43 Keywords: Energy Sector, Panel Unit Roots, Panel Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Models, Granger Causality Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0102 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Chiara Martini Author-X-Name-First: Chiara Author-X-Name-Last: Martini Title: The distributive effects of carbon taxation in Italy Abstract: The distributive incidence of environmental policies has not been widely investigated whereas more attention has been focused on the efficiency of environmental reforms. According to the Kyoto Protocol, domestic policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions can include carbon/energy taxes, emission trading, command-and-control regulations and other policies. Until now, only a few European countries have implemented energy or carbon taxes: Nordic countries have been the firstcomers, suggesting a tight link between institutional environment and the potential for policy adoption. In my analysis I assume that carbon taxation is fully shifted forward to consumers. The estimation of a complete demand system can clarify the impact of ecological tax reforms, help government to select appropriate fiscal policy and give producers the ability to forecast market demand. The demand systems underlying the simulation are represented by extensions of the Almost Ideal Demand System of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980b) and the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (Banks et al., 1997). The different taxation scenarios I simulate is modelled by referring to the Financial Law for 1999 and the DPCM 15/1/1999; The output of the demand system estimation will allow to calculate the compensating and equivalent variations and to estimate the revenue raised by carbon taxation introduction. Length: 37 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP103.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0103 Classification-JEL: D12, H23, H31, Q48 Keywords: carbon tax, regressivity, demand system, welfare measures Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0103 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Antonio Cortese Author-X-Name-First: Antonio Author-X-Name-Last: Cortese Title: La riduzione del numero dei Comuni: un tema che meriterebbe maggiore attenzione Length: 30 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP104.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0104 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Saverio M. Fratini Author-X-Name-First: Saverio M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fratini Title: La rendita assoluta di Marx e le equazioni di prezzo di Sraffa Abstract: In questo scritto si discutono tre questioni relative alla teoria della rendita assoluta: 1) una possibile reinterpretazione delle ipotesi che Marx pone alla base della sua teoria della rendita assoluta; 2) le differenze tra la rendita assoluta e la rendita da monopolio; 3) la possibilità di concepire la rendita assoluta in modo tale da poterne tener conto nella determinazione dei prezzi relativi attraverso il sistema di equazioni di Sraffa. Length: 27 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP105.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0105 Classification-JEL: B12, B51, D46 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Antonio Cortese Author-X-Name-First: Antonio Author-X-Name-Last: Cortese Title: Livello di sviluppo e processi demografici: un confronto fra Albania e Grecia dalla fine della seconda guerra mondiale ai nostri giorni Length: 19 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP106.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0106 Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0106 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pasquale Tridico Author-X-Name-First: Pasquale Author-X-Name-Last: Tridico Title: Flessibilità, sicurezza e ammortizzatori sociali in Italia Abstract: Questo saggio esplora la situazione del mercato del lavoro italiano, in un contesto europeo e comparato, dal punto di vista delle recenti trasformazioni contrattuali e sociali intervenuti. Si sostiene la necessità di trovare un raccordo, in Italia, tra la dimensione di flessibilità, ormai largamente introdotta, e la dimensione di sicurezza sociale, attraverso la riforma dell’attuale sistema complesso e disorganizzato di ammortizzatori sociali dove si percepisce un certo vacuum. Senza voler riconoscere alla flessibilità meriti che non ha né in termini di aumenti di occupazione né di incrementi di produttività, questo lavoro suggerisce che in Italia, il recepimento del modello flexicurity debba significare da un lato l’incremento di protezione, tutele e diritti sociali per occupati e disoccupati, dall’altro l’eliminazione di certe rigidità nel mercato dei beni. Questa esigenza è stata messa maggiormente in evidenza dall’attuale crisi finanziaria che ha portato nei mercati reali una crescita considerevole dei tassi di disoccupazione e quindi una maggiore domanda di protezione del reddito, soprattutto per una fascia notevole di ex occupati con contratti atipici i quali si trovano senza i requisiti necessari per poter accedere alle forme di protezione sociali vigenti. Length: 37 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP107.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0107 Classification-JEL: J08, J41, J65 Keywords: mercato del lavoro, flessibilità, sicurezza Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Filippo L. Calciano Author-X-Name-First: Filippo L. Author-X-Name-Last: Calciano Title: Nash equilibria of games with monotonic best replies Abstract: We introduce notions of increasingness for the best reply of a game that capture properly the intuitive idea of complementarity among players’ strategies. We show, by generalizing the fixpoint theorems of Veinott and Zhou, that the Nash sets of our games with increasing best replies are nonempty complete lattices. Hence we extend the class of games with strategic complementarities. Length: 14 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP108.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0108 Classification-JEL: C60, C70, C72 Keywords: Complementarity, supermodular games, fixpoint theorem, Nash equilibria Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0108 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gaetano Bloise Author-X-Name-First: Gaetano Author-X-Name-Last: Bloise Author-Name: Pietro Reichlin Author-X-Name-First: Pietro Author-X-Name-Last: Reichlin Author-Name: Mario Tirelli Author-X-Name-First: Mario Author-X-Name-Last: Tirelli Title: Indeterminacy of competitive equilibrium with risk of default Abstract: We prove indeterminacy of competitive equilibrium in sequential economies, where limited commitment requires the endogenous determination of solvency constraints preventing debt repudiation (Alvarez and Jermann [3]). In particular, we show that, for any arbitrary value of social welfare in between autarchy and (constrained) optimality, there exists an equilibrium attaining that value. Our method consists in restoring Welfare Theorems for a weak notion of (constrained) optimality. The latter, inspired by Malinvaud [15], corresponds to the absence of Pareto improving feasible redistributions over nite (though inde nite) horizons. Length: 23 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP109.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0109 Classification-JEL: D50, D52, D61, E44, G13 Keywords: imited commitment; solvency constraints; Malinvaud efficiency Welfare Theorems; indeterminacy; Welfare Theorems; indeterminacy; Welfare Theorems indeterminacy;financial fragility; market collapse Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0109 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Silvia Nenci Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Author-X-Name-Last: Nenci Title: Tariff liberatization and the growth of word trade: A comparative historiocal analysis to evaluate the multilateral trading system Abstract: The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between tariff barriers and world trade growth from a comparative and historical perspective, and –to derive some useful indications for evaluating the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system for promoting world trade. The novelty of this work is the complex reconstruction of a historical tariffs and trade series for the period 1870-2000, for 23 countries; this constitutes a good proxy for world trade (accounting for over 60%) in this period. The effect of tariff liberalization on trade growth is analysed empirically using panel data and time series. The empirical results, whilst confirming the existence of a world level long-term relationship between tariff reductions and trade growth, demonstrate how this substantial and significant relationship pre World War II gradually diminished in importance and significance after 1950. This result does not conflict with the key role of the GATT/WTO system in the trade liberalization process; however, it underlines the importance of a formalized multilateral trading system, not so much for tariff liberalization, but for building a virtuous process of international coordination of trade policies and ensuring fuller participation in world trade. Length: 41 Creation-Date: 2009 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP110.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0110 Classification-JEL: C22, F13, F15, N70 Keywords: World Trade, Multilateral Trading System, GATT/WTO, Historical Series, ECM Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alessandro Antimiani Author-X-Name-First: Alessandro Author-X-Name-Last: Antimiani Author-Name: Valeria Costantini Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Costantini Title: Trade performances and technology in the enlarged European Union Abstract: We analyse the role of the enlargement process of the European Union as a factor fostering international competitiveness of EU Member States. We argue that the economic integration process has partially reduced the technological gap between old and new EU Member States, and this pattern of technological innovation can partially explain the strong impulse on the export dynamics of European countries. We have built an augmented gravity model by including the role of technological innovation, proxied by the stock of knowledge at the sector level. By using a dynamic panel data estimator we find three main empirical evidences. First, the enlargement process has produced an overall larger positive impact on export flows for new members than for old ones, and more importantly that sectors with the higher technological content have received the strongest impulse. Second, the augmented gravity model allows shaping the crucial role of technological innovation in fostering export competitiveness. Third, this impact seems to be stronger for old EU member states than for new ones. The policy implication we derive is that the more the new EU members catch up technologically as a result of the integration process, the more they will benefit in terms of economic development. Length: 34 Creation-Date: 2010 File-URL: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/pdf/WP111.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 0111 Classification-JEL: F14; F15; O14; O33 Keywords: EU enlargement, gravity model, international trade, economic integration, technological innovation Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0111